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Hang On - The Scary Part of The Ride Is Coming Up!

June 26, 2009

One of the interesting things about writing this Blog is the readers might surmise that I am not tremendously optimistic about what is happening in this country. What is ironic though is that by nature I am an optimistic, or glass half full type of individual. That said, as a country, we are on the proverbial roller coaster ride and the scariest part has yet to come.

 

If Warren Buffet’s (the Oracle of Omaha) recent pronouncement that “the economy is a ‘shambles’ and likely to stay that way for some time” didn’t grab you, perhaps this little tidbit from Sprott Asset Management’s recent Newsletter will cause you to put down that cup of coffee, and pay attention.

 

The future solvency of the United States as a nation state is currently in jeopardy. It is in far deeper trouble than the mainstream press cares to admit. There are simply not enough new buyers of debt on this planet to support the spending programs of the United States government - and it appears that current holders of debt are beginning to sell. Because it is impossible to balance the budget from outside sources of capital, the only source of funds left for the US, in all reality, is continued money printing. The Federal Reserve’s policy of Quantitative Easing is failing.

 

Perhaps Warren and the professionals from Sprott are being alarmist in their predictions, but consider what we are witnessing in Washington DC. The House will soon vote on the Climate Emissions, or Cap and Trade legislation. The President referred to this legislation as “legislation that creates jobs,” but Warren Buffett, once again weighed in stating that this legislation will severely hurt our economy and serve as a significant regressive form of taxation. The estimated cost of this legislation has been pegged at somewhere between $650 Million to $1.4 Trillion Dollars. And the Wall Street Journal stated that this legislation will cost more than 1 Million jobs as companies move their production to other countries.

 

Moving on, this week the ABC Network (commonly referred to as the “All Barack Channel”) dedicated significant chunks of their broadcasting time to promote the merits of a nationalized health care system. Those who extol the virtues of the Canadian or British health-care systems overlook some important facts; namely, that the quality of care as well as the waiting time to access that care are significantly worse than what we are used to in this country. And there is this minor little detail that involves an estimated cost of $1.6 Trillion over the next 10 years - and that is assuming that the budget estimates from the Senate conference are accurate. However, if it is anything like the Medicaid estimates, some experts are predicting that nationalized health-care will cost us over $3 Trillion Dollars. Wouldn’t it be nice if some of our leaders explained how they will pay for all this stuff?

 

If you find all this stuff about cap and trade and health care to be a tad boring, then look at other things like the employee free choice act (or card check legislation), or the situation in North Korea and Iran. Like I said: “Hang on, the scary part of the ride is coming up.”

 

The Sprott Asset Management’s article contains five pages of sobering facts. (If you would like a copy of this newsletter let me know.) In their conclusion they noted that:  “The US budget is ludicrous, spending is out of control, spending promises are out of control, the world knows it - and we know it. For all the pundits who see the economy improving over the next year, we invite you to explain to us how this debt crisis will resolve itself without significant turmoil.” And that sums it out better than I could ever express.

 

Normally, we close out our postings with some words of encouragement, or action steps. But the magnitude of this issue (our reckless disregard for any financial discipline) is so profound, that frankly I am at a loss for words. I would ask our readers to do one thing, and if not for you, then for your kids or future generations in this country: Please do not hit the snooze button and pretend this issue will disappear.

 

As I write these words, two of our largest states, California and New York are grappling with a severe economic crisis. Unfortunately, the experts tell us that several other states,  are also facing grave economic crises. If the states are the proverbial “canary in the coal mine” about what is facing are great country, you a choice to make: Sit on the sidelines and live in a state of denial, or choose to be a modern-day Paul Revere. Get the facts and then get on your horse and let your friends, neighbors, and work associates know that our country is in danger of collapsing from within. Let your leaders know: Enough is enough!  We need to regain some sense of financial sanity in this country.

Posted by Michael Regan on June 26, 2009 | Comments (13)

July 7, 2009
In response to: Hang On - The Scary Part of The Ride Is Coming Up!
MLE commented:

I know my posting this comment, will be "opening a can of worms", but is this what our country is coming to? A civil war fought, not on the battlefield, but on Capitol Hill and in blogs around the country? I don't think it's right that we, the taxpayers, are expected to fund the bailouts of all of the banks, motor companys, etc that cannot read the writing on the wall and CUT YOUR OWN costs/salaries. If you're so worried about the company you're working for, going under, take a salary cut or better yet, "trim the fat". I'm all corporations don't need every person within upper management that's making 6 figures or more. If these companies that are going for a government bailout are unable to cut costs to be competitive, then they need to go out of business. Period. I know that this (companies going out of busienss) would mean a major loss of jobs, but it needs to happen to generate other trains of thought within these slack businesses, to gain a better idea of what a "good business model" is/should be. Because obviously, what they've been doing is NOT working and they need to wake up and smell the coffee. Don't get me wrong, the US Government Lawmakers are just as much under fire as any other business right now. The government, especially, needs to take a hard stance on this issue and cut their own costs, starting with salaries of everyone in governement right now. Think of what a first impression that would be to anyone asking for a handout? An example: Take for instance, an American Institution: United Parcel Service - UPS; they are a corporatation, traded publicly on Wall Street, with UNIONS to deal with, not to mention share-holders to answer to, and they are not content with sliding into the abyss and asking for a bailout to help them during these hard times. No, they're (UPS), taking control of their budgets and working with the various unions to keep jobs/preventing furloughs but at the same time striving to grow their share-holders interest, even in a slow economy. No, UPS' stock is not trading at the level it was a year ago, but they are still striving to do more for their customers while at the same time, cutting costs and investing in the future (Electric/Hybrid vehicles). It makes me wonder, if UPS can do it, why can't everyone else open their eyes and realize that to recover from this the USA is going to have to take a hard long look at each taxpayers bottom line and say - NO!? No to anymore bailouts, No to anymore excuses from our "lawmakers". We, as taxpayers, have got to realize that everytime a "bailout" gets signed, it's ultimately us, the people, that wind up paying for it, in the end.


July 6, 2009
In response to: Hang On - The Scary Part of The Ride Is Coming Up!
G. James commented:

Isn't it interesting that the new national health plan being forced down our throats is just that - for us - not them the congress, they get to keep their own plan, one of the most premium health care plans every devised. Congress have made themselves exempt, along with illegal immigrants from this ridiculous plan. Kind of reminds me of Animal Farm; “all animals are equal but some animals are more equal than others.” Also Obama is flat out a liar when he says we can keep our own plans if we want to - check out pgs 15-16 of the bill – no way can that happen – it’s a flat out lie. We, the 59 million who did not vote for Obama don’t want any of this crap coming from him and his congress. Cap and Trade, National Health, higher taxes will be the death of our nation. “The creatures outside looked from pig to man, and from man to pig, and from pig to man again; but already it was impossible to say which was which.”


July 2, 2009
In response to: Hang On - The Scary Part of The Ride Is Coming Up!
Girth Brooks commented:

Hey Jim S, instead of pointing fingers, how about getting your facts right. The article made a lot of good points, and all you seem to want to is take cheap shots. Don't shoot the messenger..this is the real world and MR isn't in the sugar coating business.


July 2, 2009
In response to: Hang On - The Scary Part of The Ride Is Coming Up!
Rich commented:

Jim S. I guess that's one thing we can agree on. "This thing isn't over yet." If Obama's spendulous program progresses, then I do see a prolonging of this recession. I also want to thank you for an idea you gave me. I listed all Nobel Prize winners in Economics dating back to 1990. I researched where they stood on Japan's recession, and the governments effort to spend their way out of it. Yes, there were a few that suggested that they should've spent more, sooner. They are members of the Keynesian deficit spenders. However, I found a larger portion argued that the recession in Japan was prolonged because the fiscal expenditures hid what happened in Japan: overvalued assets that were paid for by lax monetary policies. Isn't that what is happening now? By propping up banks, mortgages, GM, Chrysler, AIG, etc, isn't the government prolonging what will inevitably occur? Overvalued assets will eventually adjust to market conditions. I remember a story that Milton Friedman once told. He said he traveled to Asia to review a jobs program created by government spending. He went to a jobsite and viewed several men digging a large hole with shovels. Clearly inneficient, given the fact that there were earth movers and excavators available. He asked, "If this is a government project to create jobs, then why are they using shovels? I would've given them spoons."


July 2, 2009
In response to: Hang On - The Scary Part of The Ride Is Coming Up!
David Schneider commented:

An interesting comment I listened to regarding "Cap and Trade" was that if put to a referendum vote, where the voting public could make the decision, that the bill would fail by a 70% majority. In a way I think that that could be true if they voters were not told what was in the bill, and that they had to READ the bill before passage. Jim S, I suggest that you spend some quality time and read the current Waxman bill (since Harry can't be bothered to read it himself). I suggest that all of the readers of this blog go READ the bill. Only after reading it do you have the "facts" to debate the issue.


July 2, 2009
In response to: Hang On - The Scary Part of The Ride Is Coming Up!
Mike commented:

Jim, I responded to your previous comment in the Obamaland post. Overlooking your personal shot (e.g."It's the greedy ones (sort of like you and Jean"), I have a suggestion: Get some facts. We didn't have a revenue problem in this country due to the Bush tax cuts. Given that facts may not be important to you, you might be "shocked" to learn that that federal revenues went up almost 800 Billion between 2002 and 2006. Interesting, the same phenomena (increased revenues) happened when Reagan cut taxes. What we have is a spending problem - and the problem has gotten a lot worse since January 2007, when the Dems took control of the House. And the question I love to ask all trust fund folks - especially the Harvard grads who have made a career living off their family name, is this: What is a "fair share" for a taxpayer?" Between Fed, State, and local taxes, more than 50% of our income goes to pay taxes - and that does not include things like sales tax, gas tax, etc... Add that in and you're probably over 60% - and for folks like you, that is still not enough! So Jim,tell all of us how much more would we have to pay in order to be paying our fair share? I ask the same question to all my liberal friends and guess what? None of them will give me a number. Maybe you can enlighten all of us with a definitive (as in an actual %)answer. And then maybe you can explain why countries such as Germany and Hungary are looking at tax cuts to spur their economy. Finally, maybe you can also use that Harvard education, or refer to some articles by those Nobel Prize Laureates to enlighten us on the horror show currently masquerading as the Obama foreign policy.


July 1, 2009
In response to: Hang On - The Scary Part of The Ride Is Coming Up!
Jim S. commented:

Ok, first the Wikipedia link was to correct you on your Thomas Jefferson "quote". It's not a reference to an economist (At least I don't think Jerry Ford was an economist, he was a US President however). As for the article: It's written by Benjamin Powell, a Ph.D. student at George Mason University. I prefer to read articles by Nobel prize laureates, or people who have actually finished their PhD's, who work at schools like Princeton, Yale, Penn, NYU, of course my Alma Mater, Harvard. As for the "signs of recovery" you are about 2 months behind the news and they didn't even look all that good back then. Trust me this thing isn't over yet. Global industrial production is comparatively lower than it was at the same point in the Great Depression. Although I do find it funny that while you consider the economy a mess you also try to argue that it's recovering all on it's own. Which is it?


July 1, 2009
In response to: Hang On - The Scary Part of The Ride Is Coming Up!
Rich commented:

Nearly every economist? Really? Which business school did you go to? Obama's stimulus plan has yet to barely spend even 20% of the total plan and yet there are signs suggesting that the recession has bottomed out. This is clearly not a result of Obama's plan, but in spite of it. I am a student of the Austrian theory of economics which strongly promotes laissez-faire. For reference, feel free to read mises.org/story/1099, written by a real economist, not someone on wikipedia.


July 1, 2009
In response to: Hang On - The Scary Part of The Ride Is Coming Up!
Jim S. commented:

Rich, the example of Japan runs exactly counter to your (and Mike's) argument. Nearly every economist who's studied Japan has come to basically the same conclusion: their stimulus was insufficiently small and too slow to be put into effect (the same problem with the Obama Stimulus plan, btw). And the end result in Japan was not inflation (which can be easily, albeit painfully, controlled) but a crushing deflation which is very difficult to stop. As for your "quote", you got that wrong too. It's not Jefferson, it's Jerry Ford. See: en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Gerald_Ford


July 1, 2009
In response to: Hang On - The Scary Part of The Ride Is Coming Up!
rim commented:

I'd say we have a constitutional crisis with our one-party filibuster proof Congress. That great institution is riddled with pork barrel greed and monumental fiscal stupidity. I didn't hear Mike say "tax-cut". I heard him (and Buffet) say "we must(all)act responsibly". It's pretty amazing that our grandparents built what we can't maintain; and we can't see THAT!


July 1, 2009
In response to: Hang On - The Scary Part of The Ride Is Coming Up!
Rich commented:

Yes Jim S, it's a mess. But when does Obama own the continuation of this mess? Check your history. In Japan, they also tried to spend their way out of a recession in the 90's. They ended up quadrupling their debt and saddling the economic growth of their country for nearly ten years. "A government big enough to supply everything you need is big enough to take everything you have." - Thomas Jefferson.


July 1, 2009
In response to: Hang On - The Scary Part of The Ride Is Coming Up!
America commented:

2012 can't come soon enough. Only 1299 more days of Obama in office. Sadly, that's quite a long time for him to continue ruining this country.


June 30, 2009
In response to: Hang On - The Scary Part of The Ride Is Coming Up!
Jim S. commented:

Yes Mike it's a mess, but let's not forget that the cause of the mess is people like you, who'd rather have tax cuts than to pay their fair share. It's the greedy ones (sort of like you and Jean) that caused this mess in the first place.

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