Back to the drawing board for some supply chain projections

In yesterday’s special IHS global webcast: “What the Global Market Turmoil Means for IHS Forecasts,” shippers were told that the global economy was gripped by a “lost decade,” but that a double dip recession is unlikely
By Patrick Burnson, Executive Editor
September 08, 2011 - SCMR Editorial

Economists are revising earlier forecasts in light of recent fluctuations in supply chain metrics and production cycles.

In yesterday’s special IHS global webcast: “What the Global Market Turmoil Means for IHS Forecasts,” shippers were told that the global economy was gripped by a “lost decade,” but that a double dip recession is unlikely.

“The global economic recovery has stalled, said IHS chief economist Nariman Behravesh. “We have downgraded our forecast for both the United States and Europe on recent data that suggests a much more fragile recovery.”

In addition, he said, other risks to the recovery remain, including rising oil prices, faltering growth in emerging markets and fiscal policy and political concerns of both the U.S. and the Eurozone.
Behravesh also warned of “policy shock,” something that may be addressed in President Obama’s speech on Capitol Hill tonight.

“The single-biggest risk facing both the United States and Europe is a policy mistake—specifically, an advertent or inadvertent tightening of policy,” he said. “The uncertainty around what exactly policymakers are likely to do—faced with the twin challenges of weak growth and sovereign debt problems—is one of the biggest drags on growth.”

He added that the risk with very weak growth in Europe and the United States is not so much that the recovery will implode on its own. Rather, a fragile recovery is much less able to withstand a shock—even a weak one.

At the same time, a “bi-polar” recovery is underway, with emerging nations continuing to gain strength, said Behravesh. “The real risk in these countries is stagflation,” he said, “not recession.”

The Asia Pacific is the “star” region now, said Behravesh, with Japan proving once again to be a most resilient nation. He expects all of Asia to continue on a rapid path of expansion.



About the Author

image
Patrick Burnson
Executive Editor
Patrick Burnson is executive editor for Logistics Management and Supply Chain Management Review magazines and web sites. Patrick is a widely-published writer and editor who has spent most of his career covering international trade, global logistics, and supply chain management. He lives and works in San Francisco, providing readers with a Pacific Rim perspective on industry trends and forecasts. You can reach him directly at .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address).

Subscribe to Logistics Management magazine

Subscribe today. It's FREE!
Get timely insider information that you can use to better manage your
entire logistics operation.
Start your FREE subscription today!

Recent Entries

Seasonally-adjusted (SA) for-hire truck tonnage in February was down 3.1 percent (2000=100) compared to a revised 1.3 percent (from 1.2 percent) increase in January. ATA said this reading marks the lowest level for the SA index going back to last September.

It was a busy day for railroad-related legislation yesterday, with the United States Senate Commerce, Science, and Transportation Committee approving two bills with a railroad focus by a voice vote. The respective bills are S. 808, the Surface Transportation Board Reauthorization Act of 2015 and S. 650, the Railroad Safety and Positive Train Control Extension Act.

Indications given by a splinter group of the International Longshore and Warehouse Union suggest that shippers should not assume the tentative contract with the Pacific Maritime Association is a “done deal.”

Navis announced that George A. Kohlrieser, an internationally recognized expert on leadership, will present a general session at Navis World 2015, taking place March 29-April 1, 2015 at the Intercontinental San Francisco Hotel.

While its day-to-day objectives remain the same, the online load board freight-matching service Internet Truckstop announced today it has a new name: Truckstop.com.

About the Author

Patrick Burnson, Executive Editor
Patrick Burnson is executive editor for Logistics Management and Supply Chain Management Review. Patrick covers international trade, global logistics, and supply chain management. He lives and works in San Francisco, providing readers with a Pacific Rim perspective on industry trends and forecasts. Contact Patrick Burnson

Comments

Post a comment
Commenting is not available in this channel entry.