Global Trade Flow Index indicates a slight uptick in growth
August 03, 2010 - SCMR Editorial
Capegemini Consulting announced figures from the third edition of its Global Trade Flow Index which indicates a slight uptick in growth.
The consultancy tracks trade by quarter based on the latest available official data from national agencies of the 23 top countries in the global trade arena.
Figures revealed growth of 5 percent in worldwide trade in Q1 2010, slower than over the previous quarter (8.5 percent), as fear of a sovereign debt crisis affected European economies and the volcanic eruption in Iceland caused considerable trade disruption.
The largest rise in trade volumes was in the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China) where export volumes rose by as much as 15 percent as compared to the previous quarter (Q4 2009) as governments’ liberalization initiatives and industrial capacity improved.
Trade growth remained strongest in Asia and Latin America in Q1 2010 (combined total trade growth of 12.80 percent compared to Q4 2009), but slightly decreased in the euro area (-0.23 percent compared to Q4 2009) due to high unemployment and substantial fiscal deficits. The trade in European economies in the first quarter of 2010 was negatively affected by the fall in the value of the euro and the rising uncertainty surrounding the Greek bailout. Trade volumes in the U.S. increased by 4.6 percent in Q1 2010 and trade deficit widened as the value of crude imports hit the highest level in the last 18 months, with barrel prices at an average of almost $79/barrel.
The third edition of Capgemini Consulting Global Trade Flow Index figures provide further evidence of the incredible growth of the BRIC economies. All four of the BRIC countries have far outpaced original growth.
India’s economy grew 8.3 percent quarter-on-quarter, indicating strong economic growth, driven in particular by a huge growth in the export of goods and services.
Despite slowing domestic demand, Russia’s total trade growth came from a boom in certain key sector exports like metal & mining, with ferrous metal exports increasing by 26.7 percent and iron ore concentrate exports increasing by 47.5 percent over the previous quarter.
Chinese export of goods gained momentum in Q1 2010 (+13 percent compared to Q4 2009), while the country is still to make progress toward rebalancing a more consumer-oriented economy.
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