Latest Slump in PMI May Have Impact on Manufacturer’s Supply Chains

Modest gains can resume after the adjustment period, but it looks like a long, cool summer in the manufacturing sector
By Patrick Burnson, Executive Editor
June 04, 2013 - SCMR Editorial

When the ISM reading of 49.0 is combined with a purchasing managers’ manufacturing index (PMI) score of 52.3, the net is so close to neutral to not call it flat, observe economists.

“That is clearly superior to outright, and persistent, declines in Europe and China, but is a clear downshifting from far more robustness in late 2012 and early 2013,” said IHS Global Insight U.S. economist Michael Montgomery. “Becalmed still beats sinking.”

According to Montgomery, more tepid scores oscillating around 50 loom on the horizon through summer as the goods side of the ledger adjusts to ongoing malaise in Europe, and twin fiscal drags of tax hikes and sequester spending cuts weigh on demand for hard goods.

“Modest gains can resume after the adjustment period, but it looks like a long, cool summer in the manufacturing sector,” he added.

The manufacturing sector turned mildly negative in May, with the ISM-manufacturing index cooling to 49.0 from 50.7, its first sub-50 score of 2013 and its worst showing since June 2009. New orders and production triggered both the drop versus April and the sub-50 reading at 48.8 and 48.6, respectively. Few scores beat 50.

Prices scored a 49.5 for the first sub-50 reading since last July; oil prices probably pushed both the May 2013 and July 2012 readings below water, but other traded commodities are under downward pressure from softness in China and Europe.



About the Author

image
Patrick Burnson
Executive Editor
Patrick Burnson is executive editor for Logistics Management and Supply Chain Management Review magazines and web sites. Patrick is a widely-published writer and editor who has spent most of his career covering international trade, global logistics, and supply chain management. He lives and works in San Francisco, providing readers with a Pacific Rim perspective on industry trends and forecasts. You can reach him directly at .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address).

Subscribe to Logistics Management magazine

Subscribe today. It's FREE!
Get timely insider information that you can use to better manage your
entire logistics operation.
Start your FREE subscription today!

Recent Entries

Having introduced into the California State Senate a new bill designed to give an exemption from sales and use tax for port terminal operators purchasing zero or “near zero-emission” equipment, Lara is trying to advance two agendas.

The notions of “green shoots” or “cautious optimism” in gauging the current state of the economy does not specifically exhibit what is really happening, when assessing how things are actually going, it seems. That was made clear by Bob Costello, chief economist at the American Trucking Associations, at last week’s NASSTRAC (National Shippers Strategic Transportation Council) Shippers Conference and Transportation Expo in Orlando, Fla. last week.

With a 6.8 cent gain to $2.266 per gallon, this week’s average diesel price is at its highest level since the week of December 28, when it was at $2.237 per gallon.

Manufacturing activity in April remained on the right side of growth for the second straight month, following six months of contraction, according to the April edition of the Manufacturing Report on Business from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM).

Some 22 centuries after the original Silk Road smoothed the path of Chinese silk merchants to Europe, a new effort is beginning to build a new 21st century highway between Europe and the burgeoning economy of China, now the world’s fastest-growing market.

About the Author

Patrick Burnson, Executive Editor
Patrick Burnson is executive editor for Logistics Management and Supply Chain Management Review. Patrick covers international trade, global logistics, and supply chain management. He lives and works in San Francisco, providing readers with a Pacific Rim perspective on industry trends and forecasts. Contact Patrick Burnson

Comments

Post a comment
Commenting is not available in this channel entry.