Latin America shows sustainable manufacturing promise

According to its most recent report, “Latin America Manufacturing Outlook, most industries are feeding into a “virtuous cycle” that will eventually help make growth sustainable, though marginally decelerating
By SCMR Staff
December 17, 2010 - SCMR Editorial

Analysts with Manufacturers/MAPI said that despite som “deceleration,” Brazil and Argentina have exceeded pre-crisis manufacturing production levels and are set to post record highs.

According to its most recent report, “Latin America Manufacturing Outlook,  most industries are feeding into a “virtuous cycle” that will eventually help make growth sustainable, though marginally decelerating.

The analysis examines the latest trends and provides a near-term forecast for 16 major industries.

Mexico will contribute, but to a lesser extent, as the sub-par performance of domestic-centric industries limits the pace of that country’s manufacturing growth.

The report, authored by Fernando Sedano, Ph.D., MAPI Economic Consultant, focuses on Latin America’s three largest economies—Brazil, Argentina, and Mexico—as these countries are responsible for more than 80 percent of the manufacturing output in the region.  MAPI forecasts that overall manufacturing output in Latin America will grow 8.6 percent in 2010, a slight increase from 8.3 percent growth forecast in MAPI’s August 2010 report.  Manufacturing production is expected to show 4.2 percent growth in 2011, a deceleration but also higher than the 3.7 percent growth predicted in the previous forecast.

In developing its forecast, MAPI utilizes data from national statistical agencies,  assigning weighted average annual production indexes for each industry.  The weights are determined by a country’s sector value added in U.S. dollar terms, using MAPI’s proprietary econometric model.

The manufacturing upturn is a result of sizeable improvement in general economic conditions.  The region is showing a sharp V-shaped recovery from last year’s recession, although the strength of the recovery is uneven across countries.

In Brazil, economic growth is underpinned by a vigorous internal demand and by the elevated price of its exports.  Similarly, Argentina’s economy also benefits from favorable terms of trade, a vibrant domestic market, and strong demand from Brazil.  Mexico’s export-linked manufacturers continue to see advantages from a rebound in U.S. activity via market share gains but its domestic demand remains anemic despite the ongoing U.S.-driven manufacturing upturn.  The strength of the U.S. cycle and the future performance of domestic demand remain keys to Mexico’s manufacturing outlook.

The MAPI forecast for Latin America predicts manufacturing advancing to record-high levels this year, expanding output by 8.6 percent in 2010, the largest gain in at least two decades.  The previous high was 6.9 percent in 2004.  Manufacturing production will decelerate to a more sustainable 4.2 percent in 2011.

“The manufacturing sectors most severely hit by last year’s global economic crisis continue as the growth engines,” Sedano said.  “The automotive sector shines, pushed by external demand in Mexico, a rising domestic market in Brazil, and rapidly growing exports and a solid domestic market in Argentina.  Gains in the automotive sector have rapidly filtered through its major supplying industries such as basic metals, fabricated metals, rubber and plastics, machinery and equipment, and electronic equipment, among others.”

The report sees growth in 15 of 16 industries in 2010 and growth in all 16 industries in 2011.  Three industries—food and beverages; motor vehicles; and machinery and equipment—account for roughly 40 percent to 45 percent of the region’s manufacturing and, therefore, are most important to the forecast.

Food and beverages production, the largest industry in the region and one of the most stable, should grow by 3.8 percent in 2010 and rise by 3.1 percent in 2011.  The automotive sector is forecast to improve by 30.9 percent in 2010 and further grow by 8 percent in 2011.  The machinery and equipment industry should increase production by 22.2 percent in 2010 and by 6.8 percent in 2011.



Subscribe to Logistics Management magazine

Subscribe today. It's FREE!
Get timely insider information that you can use to better manage your
entire logistics operation.
Start your FREE subscription today!

Recent Entries

While it feels somewhat hard to fathom, the stage is set for the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals (CSCMP) Annual Conference in San Antonio, Texas.

Carload volumes were up 1.4 percent at 300,388, and intermodal volume for the week ending September 13 was up 5 percent at 279,052 trailers and containers.

Company says the Cloud offering allows customers to respond more quickly to new business opportunities, without significant upfront cost and implementation times.

As e-commerce continues to take a bigger piece of the holiday package delivery pie, it stands to reason that companies need to be proactive and prepared in order to deliver premium service during the busiest time of year, which is rapidly approaching. And that is exactly what transportation giants UPS and FedEx are doing this year. How are they doing it exactly? The primary step they are taking is to up their numbers of seasonal staffers.

A recent hearing of the Subcommittee on Coast Guard and Maritime Transportation suggests that the U.S. Merchant Marine industry may be poised for a major comeback.

Article Topics

News · Global · Manufacturing · Economy · Trade · Make · All topics

About the Author

Patrick Burnson, Executive Editor
Patrick Burnson is executive editor for Logistics Management and Supply Chain Management Review. Patrick covers international trade, global logistics, and supply chain management. He lives and works in San Francisco, providing readers with a Pacific Rim perspective on industry trends and forecasts. Contact Patrick Burnson

Comments

Post a comment
Commenting is not available in this channel entry.