Port Tracker report calls for slight increase in import cargo volumes in December

By Jeff Berman, Group News Editor
December 14, 2011 - LM Editorial

Shifts in inventory management by retailers appear to have made an impact on import cargo volumes at major United States-based container ports, according to the monthly Port Tracker report by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates.

The ports surveyed in the report include: Los Angeles/Long Beach, Oakland, Tacoma, Seattle, Houston, New York/New Jersey, Hampton Roads, Charleston, and Savannah.
Port Tracker noted that December is expected to be up 0.3 percent on an annual basis.

Total volume for 2011 is now expected to come in at 14.76 million TEU (Twenty-foot equivalent units), which is down from recent estimates in the last three months of 15 million TEU, 15.4 million TEU, and 14.73 million TEU, respectively. 2010 ended up at 14.75 million TEU, which was up 16 percent compared to a dismal 2009. The 12.7 million TEU shipped in 2009 was the lowest annual tally since 2003.

“The uptick we’re expecting for December isn’t large at all but it comes after several months where retailers had reduced their imports from last year, so it’s a positive sign by comparison,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said in a statement. “Retailers are placing a cautious bet that consumer demand is increasing.”

While December is expected to see a slight gain, the report stated that October, the most recent month for which data is available, handled 1.28 million TEU, which is off 3.5 percent compared to September’s 1.33 million TEU and is the best single month of 2011 to date. October is down 5 percent year-over-year.

In an interview with LM, Ben Hackett, president of Hackett Associates, explained that there are clear signs that the U.S. economy is picking up, with things currently not as bad as originally expected. Among the metrics showing improvement are consumer confidence, the Institute for Supply Management’s PMI, and industrial production, among others.

“Consumers have continued to spend after Thanksgiving weekend into December,” said Hackett. “Carriers in the Far East are confirming that December is actually stronger than usual.”

Along with consumer spending showing signs of life, cautious inventory planning by retailers is also impacting freight flows and volumes, too, said Hackett. He said this was evident, with inventory being managed at or near critical levels, with a little increase in October.

But especially since Thanksgiving weekend, inventory levels are back to fairly low levels, coupled with some re-stocking occurring by retailers.

With September looking to be the best volume month of the year, Hackett was blunt in his assessment of November.

“It was not a good month for volumes,” he said. “But we are optimistic about December. Early January should be a solid due to pre-Chinese New Year production coming up at the end of January, but the last ten days of January and the first two weeks of February will likely be down sharply, which is seasonal.”

In the ocean shipping sector, rates remain depressed and capacity remains at high levels. This is happening at a time when many carriers are looking to take capacity out, especially in Trans-Pacific lanes, said Hackett. This has yet to be reflected in freight rates, but when it does Hackett said rates may increase a bit in January.

Port Tracker is pegging November at 1.18 million TEU for a 4.4 percent annual decrease, and December is expected to hit 1.15 million TEU, which would be up 0.3 percent. January is expected to reach 1.15 million TEU for a 4.8 percent decline, and February, long viewed the slowest month of the year, is predicted to hit 1.04 million TEU for a 5.7 percent decline.



About the Author

Jeff Berman headshot
Jeff Berman
Group News Editor

Jeff Berman is Group News Editor for Logistics Management, Modern Materials Handling, and Supply Chain Management Review. Jeff works and lives in Cape Elizabeth, Maine, where he covers all aspects of the supply chain, logistics, freight transportation, and materials handling sectors on a daily basis. .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address).


Subscribe to Logistics Management magazine

Subscribe today. It's FREE!
Get timely insider information that you can use to better manage your
entire logistics operation.
Start your FREE subscription today!

Recent Entries

Supply chain security provider Freightwatch International has released its semi-annual report on cargo theft in the Asia Pacific region for the first half of 2014, which contains some heartening news for U.S. shippers reliant on trucking, warehousing and retail.

FedEx Ground, a subsidiary of FedEx Corporation, reports today that a decision by a three-judge panel of the United States Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit reversed previous rulings by the District Court for the Northern District of Indiana in three class action cases involving mostly former independent contractors for FedEx Ground

More talking remains before the deal is done

The transpacific U.S.-flag carrier has been ranked number one in the ocean carrier category for Logistics Management magazine's Quest for Quality award

This year, the Containerization & Intermodal Institute (CII) will be staging the “Connie” Awards dinner in conjunction with IANA’s Intermodal EXPO in Long Beach

About the Author

Jeff Berman, News Editor
Jeff Berman is Group News Editor for Logistics Management, Modern Materials Handling, and Supply Chain Management Review. Jeff works and lives in Cape Elizabeth, Maine, where he covers all aspects of the supply chain, logistics, freight transportation, and materials handling sectors on a daily basis. Contact Jeff Berman.

Comments

Post a comment
Commenting is not available in this channel entry.


© Copyright 2013 Peerless Media LLC, a division of EH Publishing, Inc • 111 Speen Street, Ste 200, Framingham, MA 01701 USA