Truck tonnage volumes are down from October to November, reports ATA

Truck tonnage levels were largely muted for the month of November, according to data issued this week by the American Trucking Associations (ATA).

Seasonally-adjusted (SA) for-hire truck tonnage in November at 134.3 (2000=100) was off 0.9 percent compared to October, which was up 1.8 percent from September. November’s SA level is 1.1 percent below the all-time high of 135.8 from January 2015.

On a year-over-year basis, the November 2014, the SA is up 0.2 percent, which ATA said represents the smallest annual SA gain going back to February 2013. And on a year-to-date basis through November in comparison to the same period a year ago, SA tonnage saw a 2.7 percent gain.

The ATA’s not seasonally-adjusted (NSA) index, which represents the change in tonnage actually hauled by fleets before any seasonal adjustment was 129.0 in November and 7.6 percent below October’s 139.6. The November SA was 0.6 percent below the 140.4 recorded in November 2014.

As defined by the ATA, the not seasonally-adjusted index is assembled by adding up all the monthly tonnage data reported by the survey respondents (ATA member carriers) for the latest two months. Then a monthly percent change is calculated and then applied to the index number for the first month.

“Tonnage gave back half of the gain in October highlighting weakness in factory output and new fracking activity, as well as a glut of inventories throughout the supply chain” said ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello in a statement. “With year-over-year gains averaging just 1.2 percent over the last three months, there has been a clear deceleration in truck tonnage. Looking ahead, I remain concerned about the high level of inventories throughout the supply chain. We recently learned that inventories throughout the supply chain and relative to sales rose in October. This will have a negative impact on truck freight volumes over the next few months.”

As previously reported, the inventory overhang continues to hinder freight transportation volumes and particularly impacts trucking as it moves roughly 70 percent of all U.S. freight.

When inventory levels running too high as they currently are now, it typically results in transportation volumes seeing declines, which is where things currently stand as with holiday shopping season set to begin in earnest.

That is good timing on two fronts: one being that it will result in increased consumer spending levels, which has been largely flattish as consumers have opted to pay down debt rather than shop more even though low gas prices were viewed not all that long ago as something that would spur increased spending, and another thing being a way to empty shelves and warehouses of the excess inventory, which is clearly needed.

Industry analysts have noted that the most recent batch of ATA numbers reflect muted freight demand, which is also apparent in terms of weak spot market demand and soft truckload capacity, too.