August retail sales show solid gains

United States August retail sales were solid, amid various economic challenges, according to data issued today by the United States Department of Commerce and the National Retail Federation (NRF).

Commerce reported that August retail sales—at $618.7 billion—eked out a 0.7% increase over July and rose 15.1% annually. And total retail sales from June through August rose 16.3% annually.  

Looking at specific verticals, Commerce reported that retail trade sales increased 0.8% compared to July and up 13.1% annually, with clothing and clothing accessories stores up 38.8% annually, likely back to school sales.

The NRF reported that its calculation of retail sales, which does not include automobile dealers, gasoline stations, and restaurants, showed that August retail sales headed up 2.3 on a seasonally-adjusted basis over July and were up 12% on an unadjusted basis annually. And on an unadjusted year-over-year basis on a three-month moving average through August, retail sales were up 11.4%.

Through the first eight months of 2021, NRF reported that retail sales are up 15%, which is consistent with its revised 2021 retail sales forecast, calling for an annual increase between 10.5%-to-13.5% to between $4.44 trillion and $4.56 trillion.

“Retail sales in August overcame unusual twists and turns that have affected shopping behavior both in terms of the timing and composition of sales,” NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said in a statement. “The consumer remains rock solid despite the trifecta of macroeconomic headwinds we’ve seen this year, including tapering off of government stimulus, elevated COVID-19 infections and ongoing supply chain challenges in the form of shortages of labor and goods. Higher sales came even with a disjointed back-to-school season that also affected the timing of sales as many school districts returned to in-person learning but some delayed classes until after Labor Day. These results pave the way for sturdy consumer spending and a strong economy in the fourth quarter.”