Biden, Congress negotiating in final push for $1 trillion roads and bridges deal

President Joe Biden signaled confidence that his personal lobbying of reluctant Democratic senators Joe Manchin of West Virginia and Kyrsten Synema of Arizona ultimately will prevail and the nation shortly will have two huge infrastructure bills – one covering traditional roads and bridges and the other, larger bill for “human infrastructure.”

Democrats appear hungry to pass both the $1 trillion bill intact and a smaller $2 trillion version of the larger measure.     It now appears likely both will pass in early November, according to Capitol Hill sources.

Linking both of those bills is running into resistance from the trucking industry and other business lobbying groups. They favor passing the bipartisan $1 trillion roads and bridges infrastructure plan and leaving a much larger “human infrastructure” package to another day. 

Biden, who made a personal visit to assure House Democrats in early October, is putting his presidency on the line with a commitment to shepherd both bills into law.

“It doesn’t matter whether it’s in six minutes, six days or in six weeks, we're going to get it done,” Biden said after meeting with Democratic leaders recently.

A key strategy has been a re-linking of the two bills and the lowering of progressive expectations for the topline from the original $3.5 trillion price tag to somewhere between $1.9 and $2.3 trillion. Those lower amounts could be what moderates in the Senate Democratic caucus could accept, sources say.

The price tag can be cut by eliminating programs, enacting means-testing for wealthier recipients and by shortening the duration of some programs. Progressives are hoping the new programs – universal child care, free junior college tuition and the like – will prove so popular that future Congresses will have no choice but to extend the programs.

“We continue to see a roughly 85% probability that the infrastructure bill is enacted this year and around 65% for a significant reconciliation bill in some form,” Heights Capital Markets said in a note to investors.

The president assured progressive Democratic House members that no bill will happen until an agreement is reached on both infrastructure bills.

That is not what highway lobbyists and traditional business groups wanted to hear.

 Neil Bradley, executive vice president of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, said he has held “hundreds of meetings” with members of Congress on the merits of the $1 trillion bill, and said it has overwhelming support on Capitol Hill.

“It’s not the substance that people are disagreeing with here,” Bradley said. “The hostage-taking … the willingness to shoot the hostages on the Republican side. Not a single one of them can be fixed today. It’s time for Congress to vote on the bill and send it to the President, then we can argue about the other issues.”

The Chamber has launched a six-figure paid advertising campaign in opposition to the $3.5 trillion reconciliation bill that it says poses a “significant threat” to the American economy.  

“This reconciliation bill is effectively 100 bills in one representing every big government idea that’s never been able to pass in Congress. The bill is an existential threat to America’s fragile economic recovery and future prosperity,” said U.S. Chamber of Commerce President and CEO Suzanne Clark. “We will not find durable or practical solutions in one massive bill that is equivalent to more than twice the combined budgets of all 50 states.”

Opinions of these programs vary widely, depending on one’s point of view.

“Our drivers see first-hand the dire conditions of our roads and bridges,” said Chris Spear, American Trucking Associations President and CEO, in a conference call with reporters ahead of a scheduled vote in the House of Representatives on Thursday. “This is our shop floor.”

Spear stated that nearly half the roads are in poor or mediocre condition. “This is embarrassing,” Spear said.

Michael Johnson, president of National Sand and Stone Gravel Association, called the $1 trillion bill “critically important” for the country that has the support of 75% of the American people.

The roads and bridges bill also has support from a range of politicians. The $1 trillion infrastructure measure has the support of Senate politicians including Budget Committee Chairman Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., and Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky.

ATA’s Spear said the cost of doing nothing is not free. “The nation’s 8 million trucking-related employees expect them to put America first before their own jobs,” Spears said. “We’re tired of Plan B. We’ve been running on Plan B for five years. It’s time for Plan A.”

Spear said passage of this infrastructure measure will give state departments of transportation the ability to plan for more than one year ahead. “This bill, if passed, gives them certainty. If this bill passes, we’re going to see a lot of road construction over the next three years. It’s a good thing—it’s an investment.”