Biden faces uphill struggle in his vision for heavy truck EV push by 2032

The Biden administration is likely facing an uphill battle in the courts and Congress in its vision of turning America into an electric vehicle haven.

The Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) contentious proposal runs 515 pages. It is designed to force manufacturers by 2032 to sell one-fourth of new heavy trucks as electric vehicles – and two-thirds of all new passenger vehicles – is expected to be tested in the courts provided it gets through Congress first.

Currently, less than 2 percent of trucks sold last year were electric as well as a mere 5.8 percent of passenger vehicles.

About 50 percent of what the administration labels “vocational vehicles,” which include buses and garbage trucks, would be required to be electric by 2032. In addition, the EPA is requiring 35 percent of short-haul freight tractors and 25 percent of long-haulers be similarly non-polluting vehicles.

The proposal hit the organized trucking industry like a boxer hit with a stunning uppercut in the first round of what he hopes will be a 15-round fight.

“The trucking industry starts at ‘yes,’” American Trucking Associations President and CEO Chris Spear said in a statement. “We share the goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions and improving fuel efficiency and believe any regulation must be practical, achievable and based on sound science.”

Spear noted the trucking industry has “a long history of adopting the cleanest emissions technology on the road today and are making the necessary investments to support a decarbonized future.”

But he added that it ultimately will be trucking fleet customers who will be the end-users of these trucks that will determine success in this fight.

“The (EPA’s) Phase 3 standards must take into account the complex challenges and operating conditions facing motor carriers as we manage the transition to a zero-emission future while simultaneously moving more than 72 percent of the economy’s freight,” Spear added.

Fleet executives say the problem is the regulatory bodies may be ahead of technology at this time. For heavy trucks to decarbonize on an industry-wide scale, one of two emerging technologies will likely win out in the market place – hydrogen or batteries.

Both have pros and cons, industry officials say. Purely battery-powered trucks are ahead of hydrogen fuel cells, but the competition is far from over.

Hydrogen trucks offer long driving range and quick refueling. But so far only a few very expensive models are available. Battery-electric rigs are relatively cheaper and more widely available. But charging 3.5 million heavy trucks nationally will require massive investments in high-powered charging infrastructure.

Besides technology and infrastructure limitations, this drive toward energy transformation will cause skyrocketing demand for minerals such as lithium and cobalt, among others. The International Monetary Fund is warning that environmental goals could spur “unprecedented demand” for some of these that could cause price hikes that “could derail or delay the energy transition itself.”

“As we review the proposed rule, ATA will remain engaged in the regulatory process to ensure the agency arrives at a regulation that has realistic equipment adoption timelines, is technologically feasible and will not cause additional inflationary pressures if finalized,” Spear said.

He also addressed the EPA’s decision to reopen its Phase 2 regulation that was finalized in 2016:

“We are extremely disappointed that EPA has chosen to reopen the Phase 2 regulation, which had been set for years. To make the plans and investments necessary for a successful transition, our industry needs regulatory certainty — not whimsical changes of mind from year to year.

“Our industry has always found ways to partner with EPA on regulations that are tough but achievable,” Spear added. “If EPA wants us to remain a willing participant, their going back and changing what was already agreed upon is not how to do it.”

The newly formed Clean Freight Coalition, which is made up of motor carriers of every size and sector, truck manufacturers and truck dealers, said one of its core tenets is how to transition to zero-emission heavy trucks that will deliver reliable and affordable transportation of the nation’s freight.

“Ensuring a feasible transition to new technologies is our primary goal,” CFC Executive Director Jim Mullen said in a statement.

He noted that an “adequate infrastructure,” including the power grid and charging stations, and the sourcing of required minerals, are essential to the supply chain as part of the transition to a zero-emission future.

Further, Mullen said regulations must provide the lead time, stability and certainty that allows for the industry to develop the technology, testing in real-world conditions and minimize downtime and operational disruption.

“Companies represented by members of the CFC are currently producing zero-emission trucks that are being tested in fleets’ actual freight networks,” Mullen said. “The commitment to the transition to zero-emission heavy trucks is firm.”

He said CFC member companies are uniquely situated to collaborate with the EPA by sharing industry data, case studies and best practices to ensure that the transition to zero-emission vehicle technology does not have an adverse impact on the nation's supply chain. And candidly, the CFC members see this as their obligation.”

U.S. Senator Tom Carper, D-Del., chairman of the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee, said the recently passed Inflation Reduction Act and Bipartisan Infrastructure Law would help EPA in its fight to reduced greenhouse gas emissions standards for light-, medium- and heavy-duty vehicles sold in model years 2027 through 2032. 

“Thanks to recent technological advancements and historic levels of investment, electric vehicles are more affordable and in demand more than ever before,” said Carper, adding he hopes to see a final rule by the end of the year.

Sen. Carper has long pushed for strong greenhouse gas emissions standards for our nation’s vehicles. Carper has also worked tirelessly to protect the ability of states and the federal government to establish vehicle emissions standards from legal challenges this year. Undoubtedly, the senator will have more work on that front ahead of him.

“This isn’t going to be easy,” Sam Ambuelsamid, principal with Guidehouse Insights, a research firm, told the New York Times. “Not at all.”

The EPA has scheduled a hearing on May 3-4. It is Docket ID No. EPA-HQ-OAR-2022-0985.