Cass Freight Index highlights ongoing freight shipments and expenditures gains

The November edition of the Cass Freight Index, which was recently published by Cass Information Systems highlighted gains, for both freight shipments and expenditures.

Many freight transportation and logistics executives and analysts consider the Cass Freight Index to be the most accurate barometer of freight volumes and market conditions, with many analysts noting that the Cass Freight Index sometimes leads the American Trucking Associations (ATA) tonnage index at turning points, which lends to the value of the Cass Freight Index.

November’s shipment reading—at 1.206—saw a 4.5% annual increase, topping 0.8% and 0.4% annual gains for October and September, respectively, and it was up 7.3% on a two-year stacked change basis. Shipments were up 1.4% and 2.6% compared to October on a month-to-month change and seasonally-adjusted month-to-month change, respectively.

“Freight volumes remain capacity-constrained, as shown by declining rail volumes and the ongoing backlog of containerships outside of U.S. ports,” wrote the report’s author Tim Denoyer, ACT Research vice president and senior analyst. “Although little progress has been made on the ocean as of yet, the pickup in our shipments index shows progress as the freight industry works to de-bottleneck. One important example of this is recent easing in semiconductor shortages, as shown by improving automotive rail carloadings.”

November freight expenditures—at 4.275—were up 43.9% annually, topping October’s 37.2% annual spread, and up 52.1% on a two-year stacked change basis. Expenditures were up 8.0% compared to October and were up 10.2% compared to October on a seasonally-adjusted basis.

“The full-year increase in this index will be 37% in 2021, assuming normal seasonality in December, after a 7% decline in 2020 and no change in 2019,” wrote Denoyer. “Tougher comparisons in the coming months will naturally slow these [annual] increases, but again, just using normal seasonality from here, the increase in 2022 will still be 18%-20% at this trend level.”