DAT’s August Truckload Volume Index points to decreasing rates and increasing volumes

The August edition of the DAT Truckload Volume Index (TVI), which was issued this week by DAT Freight & Analytics, was mixed with rates down and volumes up.

The DAT Truckload Volume Index reflects the change in the number of loads with a pickup date during that month, with the actual index number normalized each month to accommodate any new data sources without distortion, with a baseline of 100 equal to the number of loads moved in January 2015. It measures dry van, refrigerated (reefer), and flatbed trucks moved by truckload carriers.

August’s TVI dry van freight reading—at 258—was up 11% compared to July, marking its highest-ever August reading and a 12% annual gain. The refrigerated (reefer) TVI came in at 182, for an 8.2% gain, with the flatbed TVI up 12.5%, to 251. DAT said that changes in the TVI represent the number of loads moved with a pickup date during the month. And it added that spot truckload rates are negotiated on a per-load basis and paid to the carrier by a freight broker, with DAT’s rate analysis based on $137 billion in annualized freight transactions.

DAT’s data highlighted the following takeaways for truckload volumes, load-to-truck ratios, and rates, for the month of August, including:

• the national August average spot market rates to move dry and reefer freight per mile each declined for the seventh consecutive month, with the van rate down $0.11, to $2.52, and the reefer rate down $0.10, to, $2.89;
• the national average spot rate for flatbed freight fell decreased $0.24, to $3.05 per mile, marking a $0.40 decline compared to March’s all-time high;
• the national average van load-to-truck ratio—at 3.5—was off compared to July’s 3.8, and the reefer load-to-truck ratio—at 7.1—was flat compared to June and July;
• the August flatbed load-to-truck ratio fell from 21.8 in July to 14.8 in August, which DAT said was in line with August 2019’s 11.9 reading, a period when it said the “spot market was oversupplied with capacity”;
• the national average shipper-to-broker contract van rate, for August, at $3.12 per mile, fell $0.08 compared to July and was $0.59 above the average spot rate in August;
• the average contract reefer rate, at $3.40 per mile, was off $0.09 compared to July and $0.51 above the average spot reefer rate; and
• the average contract rate for flatbed freight was off $0.15, to $3.66 per mile, with a $0.60-cent gap between the contract rate and spot rate

“While spot rates declined and overall load-posting activity was down slightly compared to July, an increase in the number of actual loads moved and a decline in fuel prices were encouraging signs to cap off a sluggish summer,” said Ken Adamo, DAT Chief of Analytics, in a statement.

Hurricane Ian analysis: Addressing the impact of Hurricane Ian and what it could mean for the truckload market, Adamo said the following:

“There’s a common misconception that weather events impact outbound freight when it’s really not so much the case. 

Looking at Houston in the days and weeks surrounding the arrival of Hurricane Harvey in August 2017, the impact on outbound loads normalized quickly, within a week or so. 

“The bigger impact was on the inbound side. Houston is normally a balanced market in terms of volumes coming in and out but the rush to move materials, machinery, and supplies for recovery into the area created a disruption to inbound and outbound flows that persisted almost through the end of the year.

Let’s look at Lakeland, Fla., which includes Tampa and Orlando. This market is typically imbalanced, with much more freight coming in than going out. We’re seeing capacity moving out of central Florida now and, if the weather forecasts hold, the demand for freight into Lakeland will be significantly higher over the next few weeks. Rates on the spot market should increase as well.

The question is how will the storm affect movements throughout the Southeast?

Hurricane Harvey was so significant, and Houston is such a large, diverse market, that the storm affected lanes that are unrelated to Houston. How much will the need for inbound recovery and backlogged loads into Florida pull away or drive rates on other lanes or markets like Atlanta, for example? The severity of the storm will help provide those answers.”