Descartes Datamyne shares insights on “Peak Season”

Editor's Note: As global logistics managers ready themselves for the ocean cargo industry’s “Peak Season,” several industry experts have been sharing their insights and forecasts with Supply Chain Management Review—a sister publication. Brendan McCahill, Senior Vice President of Trade Data Content at Descartes Datamyne, presents his perspective in this exclusive interview.

Supply Chain Management Review: When may global supply chain managers expect to see blockchain standards established? 

Brendan McCahill: This still seems to be a bit of a moving target, but while the “desire” appears to be growing, the actual implementation is slow. 

SCMR: Who will be the early adapters?

McCahill: Very large BCOs, with clearly defined internal departments and dedicated staff remain in the best position to use this technology, but in many cases they’re dealing with smaller and somewhat fragmented suppliers who simply do not have the same luxury of staff (or maybe capital) to be dedicated to this notion of a work in progress in many areas. What are the standards? Are they global? Can I be sure that the transaction with X partner will be the same with Y partner? Or, does my company need to customize and adapt each time we are conducting a blockchain transaction?

SCMR: What are the existing barriers to blockchain adaptation by supply chain stakeholders? 

McCahill: Standardization of rules and norms (analogous perhaps to the inception of EDI many years ago); thought processes that compares blockchain to bitcoin; current geopolitical and trade turmoil that absorb resources dedicated to solving very immediate problems, hence not leaving adequate time and energy to be devoted to this longer term transition which would bring a few issues to address. 

SCMR: Shippers are also concerned about obtaining sufficient capacity during Peak Season. What is your forecast? 

McCahill: In the main, by pure arithmetic, it would seem that global capacity should be available to meet demand. With growth perhaps a bit less this year than last, and tonnage available, the lift should be able to complement the demand. Perhaps cargo interest are going to be more concerned that enough capacity will be available to compensate for any shift in sourcing that is being precipitated by trade issues. Will the ports capacity be adequate if cargo moves away from China? Will the berth be adequately covered with direct calls of smaller vessels or even thru feeder and/or transshipment? It may be that capacity being in the right places at the right time could be a new complexity for the cargo to deal with in upcoming months.

SCMR: Finally, do you see more carrier consolidation in 2020?

McCahill: This remains a vexing question, as each year we seem to see something happen in this arena that “comes out of the blue” so to speak. It’s always possible that some lines that have not “bulked up” on tonnage may find themselves in a position where acquisition makes more sense than fighting it out, but really too hard to be concrete in a forecast.