FTR’s Shippers Conditions Index shows continued growth

Following a month in which it hit its highest reading in more than two years, the most recent edition of the Shippers Conditions Index (SCI) from freight transportation consultancy FTR showed continued growth, albeit at a slightly lower level.

FTR describes the SCI as an indicator that sums up all market influences that affect the transport environment for shippers, with a reading above zero being favorable and a reading below zero being unfavorable and a “less-than-ideal environment for shippers.”

For January, the most recent month for which data is available, the SCI came in at 1.4, down from December’s 1.8, which marked the highest SCI reading in more than two years, going back to August 2016. November’s barely positive reading of 0.1, and October’s -2.1, which, while negative, marked an improvement over September’s -7.6, as well as the 8.8 reading recorded in August. The July SCI reading was -9.9 and June was -9.5. May’s SCI was -12.3 and April’s was -13.4.

FTR said that it forecasts the SCI to remain close to neutral throughout the first quarter and then slowly head up over the course of 2019. But, it added, even with the SCI pegged to peak in the fourth quarter of this year, shippers’ conditions are expected to be only marginally positive, due to capacity remaining tight as compared to previous years.

“While conditions for shippers are forecast to remain neutral to positive over the coming months, it is possible that the duration and extent of flooding in the U.S. Midwest could be a headwind to those improvements, depending on where your freight is moving,” said Todd Traunausky, FTR vice president of rail and intermodal, in a statement. “Overall stable fuel prices and more available capacity than was experienced in 2018 will create a relatively calm environment.”