FTR’s Trucking Conditions Index falls but remains in positive territory

The most recent edition of the Trucking Conditions Index (TCI), which was recently released by freight transportation consultancy FTR, continued a trend of declines in recent months while still remaining on the right side of growth.

The TCI reflects tightening conditions for hauling capacity and is comprised of various metrics, including capacity, fuel, bankruptcies, cost of capital and freight.

According to FTR, a TCI reading above zero represents an adequate trucking environment, with readings above 10 indicating that volumes, prices and margin are in a good range for carriers.

For October, the most recent month for which data is available, the TCI reading was 3.17, which is more than a point down from August’s 4.58. Both these tallies are down significantly from August’s 10.24 and July’s 14.04 (a 14-year high), as well as May and June at 11.4 and 11.18, respectively.

FTR said that stabilizing truckload rates and a short-lived run up in diesel prices were largely responsible for what is called a continued deterioration in October trucking conditions, with the October TCI at its lowest level going back to August 2017. But it noted that the firm’s outlook for trucking conditions is solid in the near-term, with the TCI rebounding to a better level in the coming months.

“October’s conditions index confirms the general sense that the current cycle has peaked,” said Avery Vise, FTR vice president of trucking, in a statement. “Although we anticipate improved conditions for the remainder of 2018 and much of 2019 compared to October, we appear to be headed gradually toward neutral territory.”