FTR’s Trucking Conditions Index shows growth while overall forecast remains negative

The new edition of the Trucking Conditions Index (TCI), which was recently issued by freight transportation consultancy FTR, again saw sequential improvement while falling short of growth.

According to FTR, a TCI reading above zero represents an adequate trucking environment, with readings above 10 indicating that volumes, prices and margin are in a good range for carriers.

For November, the most recent month for which data is available, the TCI reading, at -1.35, marked an improvement compared to November and October’s respective -6.07 and -8.97 readings. Which were preceded by August’s -12.54 reading (its lowest reading going back to November 2022), which was preceded by July’s -5.34 reading and June’s -6.29 reading.

As was the case in the previous edition of the TCI, FTR explained that the TCI largely saw improvement due to a “sharp drop in diesel prices,” adding that all key factors in the TCI were more favorable for carriers in November, with the 2024 outlook still modestly negative through late 2024.

“Unfortunately for carriers, November’s market conditions likely were the least unfavorable that they will be through at least the first half of this year barring another sustained slide in diesel prices,” said Avery Vise, FTR’s vice president of trucking, in a statement. “However, as we have noted frequently, lower fuel costs are complicated. Falling diesel prices tend to slow exits of very small carriers, which could further depress capacity utilization and deflate any upward pressure on rates. Meanwhile, freight demand shows no signs of improving significantly in the near term. Trucking should see incremental improvement throughout 2024 but not enough to create any real inflection in the market.”