November retail sales see continued growth, reports Commerce and NRF

November retail sales numbers saw gains, according to data respectively issued today by the U.S. Department of Commerce’s Census Bureau and the National Retail Federation (NRF).

Commerce reported that November retail sales, at $705.7 billion, were up 0.3% compared to October and rose 4.1% compared to November 2022. Total retail sales, from September through November, increased 3.4% compared to the same period a year ago.

November retail trade sales increased 0.1 sequentially and rose 3.1% annually, and non-store retailers, which includes e-commerce, increased 10.6% annually.  

NRF reported that November retail sales, which does not include automobile dealers, gasoline stations, and restaurants, increased 3.3% annually on an unadjusted basis on a three-month moving average and up 3.7% annually through November on an annual year-to-date basis.

“Today’s report highlights consumers’ strength and continuing capacity to spend,” NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said in a statement. “Jobs and wage gains together with falling energy prices have supported holiday shopping as we predicted. Lower inflation for goods has helped savvy consumers make smart decisions about holiday purchases. The year-over-year comparison shows spending is on track to meet our projection for a sound holiday shopping season.”

The organization added the November retail sales numbers issued by the Department of Commerce are in line with the recently-released CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor, which pointed to core November retail sales up 0.73% on a seasonally-adjusted basis, from October to November, and up 4.17% annually on an unadjusted basis, topping Octobers gains, at 0.003% and 2.63%, respectively.

What’s more, NRF recently called for solid holiday season retail sales growth in its 2023 Holiday Season sales forecast. NRF defines holiday sales as sales occurring between November 1 and December 31, excluding automobile dealers, gasoline stations, and restaurants, to focus on core retail.

As was the case a year ago, NRF’s holiday sales forecast numbers are optimistic and positive, with 2023 holiday season retail sales pegged to be up 3%-to-4% annually, coming in between $957.3 billion and $966.6 billion.

While this projected 3%-to-4% growth rate is below the 6%-to-8% called for last year, which was buoyed by trillions of dollars of federal stimulus driving what the NRF called “unprecedented rates of retail spending during the pandemic,” NRF said that the 2023 estimate is more in line with the average annual holiday increase, of 3.6%, from 2010 to 2019.