Panjiva data shows another strong month for imports in May

Whether they are compared to one year ago or to the last full pre-pandemic year in 2019, United States-bound imports and shipments remain elevated, according to recently-issued data by global trade intelligence firm Panjiva.

Total May U.S.-bound import shipments—at 1,310,710—are up 30.5% annually and are up 27.9%, to 6,137,069, on a year-to-date basis through May. And containerized freight imports—at 3,010,055 TEU (Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units)—saw a 47.1% annual gain and are up 41.2% year-to-date, to 14,175,840 TEU and also up 18.3% compared to May 2019.

While these growth levels remain significant, Panjiva observed that it was lower than growth seem in March and April, with May’s average daily shipment, at 97,100 TEU, trailing only April, at 97,700 TEU, adding that ports continue to work through the pairing of existing congestion and underlying demand growth.

On the product side, for May, Panjiva reported the following import numbers:

• consumer discretionary products were up 88.2% annually, following April’s 47.9% annual gain and were up 32.9% compared to May 2019;
• consumer electronics shipments and household appliances shipments saw annual gains of 10.9% and 62.2%, respectively, compared to May 2019;
• apparel shipments were up 4.4% compared to May 2019;
• materials shipments were off 1.4% compared to May 2019 and were up 18% annually

Panjiva said was evident in the paper, packaging, and forestry products sector collectively seeing a 9.8% decline compared to May 2019, noting that it indicates the suggestion of upward pressure on supply chain costs for the packaging/e-commerce and construction sectors

For origin locations, Panjiva said that imports from China, including Hong Kong, were up 51.2% annually, and up 27.4% compared to May 2019, noting that there are more challenges in store, due to “a renewed surge in the pandemic in China.” Imports out of Europe saw a 34.6% annual gain and were up 10.6% compared to May 2019, and imports from Asia, excluding China, rose 44.5% annually and were up 13.1% compared to May 2019.

Given the state of high import and shipment volumes, Panjiva Research Director Chris Rogers said that if a normal state of volumes closely resembles 2019, then, in more typical times, there is the fear of a massive reverse course in volumes.

“What is causing this [high volumes], at the moment, are two elements,” he said. “One is the whole sales and restocking cycle, and we can see that in the consumer discretionary data. Another is the working through of congestion issues on the West Coast. That is reflected in the import numbers there, with each vessel being unloaded being 20,000 TEU on its own. There is a lot still coming ashore there as well.”

Another driver for the high numbers, according to Rogers, is related to people coming out of the pandemic-driven lockdown and buying outdoor-related goods like summer clothes and increased shipment levels of more formal attire, with more people returning to work in offices.

What’s more, he added another reason that there has been a bigger boom in shipping than there has been in the economy is that a lot of the goods being imported have been big and bulky items, like furniture, for example.

“When you look at a lot of the growth coming in through the leisure goods sector, like summer-related products and stuff for your garden and related equipment, the question really becomes when do we see the switch back from spending on things to spending on experiences? One of the reasons we have not seen more of that is people are still not necessarily looking at going on long distance vacations.”   

Looking ahead to July and August, Rogers explained that there is a possibility, due to the port congestion issues in Yantian, China, which could delay exports getting out the door and not arriving at the early part of Peak Season and subsequently arriving a few weeks later than usual.

As for how Peak Season could play out, Rogers noted that it is still too early to tell.

“We always see volatility in Peak Season, as, by definition, a peak is a volatile move from a base, but this year it will be even more so,” he said. “That is not just in the aggregate, because we don’t really know where consumers’ spending is going to head, but also in terms of specifics, like supply chains relying on Yantian or a specific port or rail connection. For this Peak Season, I struggle to see a situation where we are still up 25% year-over-year in the fourth quarter. We might not be back to 2019 levels though, but we can always be sure that there will be day-to-day surprises that can trip up supply chains, and that is where I think we will see a lot of the action this Peak Season.”