Port of Long Beach examines consequences of possible trade war at recent forum

Global logistics experts speaking at the Port of Long Beach’s 14th annual “Pulse of the Ports Peak Season Forecast,” agreed that the potential threat of a trade war could halt otherwise strong growth in the exchange of cargo between Asia and the United States.

The port’s media relations manager, Lee Peterson, told LM in an interview that the most compelling presentation was given by Drewry Maritime Research Senior Quantitative Economist Mario Moreno.

“Moreno predicted Asia-U.S. trade will grow 6.8 percent in 2018, the fastest pace in more than half-a-dozen years,” said Pederson. “He also estimated the overall U.S. economy will expand 2.8 percent.”

While President Donald Trump and China have proposed higher tariffs, an all-out trade war between China and the United States appears unlikely, the economist added.

Peterson noted, however, that Moreno pointed out that “both nations have a lot to lose, adding that consumer prices would certainly go up here in the U.S., and the Chinese government would certainly retaliate by imposing tariffs of their own.

U.S.-China trade accounts for more than two-thirds of imports and almost one-third of exports at the ports of Long Beach and Los Angeles.

As reported in LM earlier this month, The Port of Oakland issued a note of alarm about the consequences U.S. exporters may face if retaliatory measures are taken in response to tariffs imposed on inbound goods from China.

The Agriculture Transportation Coalition also warned members that such restrictions could allow both carriers and shippers to declare a “force majeure,” under most ocean cargo contracts and standard Bill of Lading language.

According to Peterson, about 500 people gathered at the Long Beach Convention Center for the event, which brings together a panel of shipping and trade experts to offer their perspectives on industry trends and how they affect the San Pedro Bay port complex.