Port Tracker report points to signs of import traction ahead of the holidays

Higher than expected import levels, driven by the ongoing reopening of the United States economy and retailers focused on inventory restocking, in advance of the holiday season, amid the COVID-19 pandemic, were some of the key themes of the new Port Tracker report, which was issued today by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and maritime consultancy Hackett Associates.

The ports surveyed in the report include: Los Angeles/Long Beach; Oakland; Tacoma; Seattle; Houston; New York/New Jersey; Hampton Roads; Charleston, and Savannah; Miami; Jacksonville; and Fort Lauderdale, Fla.-based Port Everglades.

Authors of the report explained that cargo import numbers do not correlate directly with retail sales or employment because they count only the number of cargo containers brought into the country, not the value of the merchandise inside them, adding that the amount of merchandise imported provides a rough barometer of retailers’ expectations.

NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said in the report retailers are importing far more merchandise for the holidays than was expected even a month ago.

“Some of these imports are helping replenish inventories that started to run low after consumers unleashed pent-up demand when stores reopened,” he said. “But this is the clearest sign yet that we could be in for a much happier holiday season than many had thought.”

Port Tracker reported that for July, the most recent month for which data is available, U.S.-based retail container ports handled 1.92 million Twenty Foot Equivalent Units (TEU), which marked a 2.3% annual decrease but is up 19.3% compared to June and well ahead of a previous forecast, of 1.76 million TEU, the report made in August.

The report estimated that August would hit 2.06 million TEU, for a 6% annual gain, which would mark an all-time high, if it comes to fruition, topping the current high, of 2.04 million TEU, from October 2018.

And it added that September is pegged to hit 1.89 million TEU, for a 1.1% annual gain, with October expected to be down 9.2%, to 1.71 million TEU. November, at 1.58 million TEU, and December, at 1.53 million TEU, are estimated to be down 6.8% and 11%, respectively. The July through October peak season is expected to hit 7.7 million TEU, which would place it as the third most active peak season, following 2018’s 7.7 million TEU and 2019’s 7.66 million TEU.

The report said that if the report’s projections hold serve that 2020 would hit 20.1 million TEU, for a 6.7% annual decline and represent the lowest full-year tally going back to 2016’s 19.1 million TEU.

Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett noted in the report that the economy has come into focus, for good reasons.

“The previous yo-yo pattern of import levels reached a peak in July that appears to have extended into August,” he wrote. “Nonetheless, data from around the globe is a mix, with a weak recovery as Europe struggles with rising COVID-19 numbers but China’s exports remain solid. Will this last? A lot of uncertainty is in play.”

And he noted that this uncertainty comes in the form of declining income and continued pandemic fears creating worries for the U.S. recovery despite the rise in spending on the back of a sharp rise in savings.