Port Tracker report shows reduced growth due to ongoing pandemic-related issues

United states retail container import levels remain solid but growth levels are starting to trend down from double-digit annual gains to single digits, due, in large part, to ongoing global pandemic-related supply chain disruptions, according to the most recent edition of the Global Port Tracker report, which was issued today by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and maritime consultancy Hackett Associates.

The ports surveyed in the report include: Los Angeles/Long Beach; Oakland; Tacoma; Seattle; Houston; New York/New Jersey; Hampton Roads; Charleston, and Savannah; Miami; Jacksonville; and Fort Lauderdale, Fla.-based Port Everglades.

Authors of the report explained that cargo import numbers do not correlate directly with retail sales or employment because they count only the number of cargo containers brought into the country, not the value of the merchandise inside them, adding that the amount of merchandise imported provides a rough barometer of retailers’ expectations.

“Year-over-year growth isn’t as dramatic as it was earlier because we’re now comparing against months when most stores closed by the pandemic last year had reopened and retailers were stocking up again,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said in a statement. “We expected that. But we’re seeing issues ranging from port closures in Asia to ships lined up waiting to dock at U.S. ports. That’s creating continuing challenges as retailers work to supply enough inventory to meet demand. The administration’s recent appointment of a supply chain task force and a port envoy are major steps forward, and we look forward to working with officials to find solutions.”

For July, the most recent month for which data is available, import volumes came in at 2.19 million TEU (Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units), marking a 2% gain over June and a 14.2% annual increase.

And, for August, which marks the beginning of the traditional Peak Season, with retailers stocking up for holiday merchandise, and, for this year, moving up shipments earlier in order to have needed available holiday season inventory, the report is calling for 2.27 million TEU, for a 7.8% annual gain. This estimate was down from the previous edition of the report, which called for 2.37 million TEU, for a 12.6% annual gain, and would set a new monthly record.

For the following months, Port Tracker issued the following projections:

• September, at 2.21 million TEU, for a 5.1% annual increase;
• October, at 2.19 million TEU, for a 1.3% decline, which would mark the first annual decline going back to July 2020;
• November, at 2.13 million TEU, for a 1.4% annual increase;
• December, at 2.07 million TEU, for a 1.8% annual decrease; and
• January 2022, at 1.5 million TEU, for a 4.5% annual increase

Total volume, for the first half of 2021, was up 35.6% annually, and the total 2021 volume is pegged at 25.9 million TEU, for a 17.6% annual increase. Should the 2021 estimate come to fruition, it would stand as a new record, coming in ahead of the previous record set in 2020, at 22 million TEU.

Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett wrote in the report that supply chain management is facing acute problems as disruptions make it difficult for both importers and exporters to transact their business.

“Rather than a unified effort to try to find rapid solutions that could alleviate the problems, however, we are seeing situations in which people attempt to finds someone to blame,” wrote Hackett. “The question is, are we all in that situation today as shippers lash out at players in the supply chain to lay blame? We are facing shortages in all sectors of the chain: a lack of sufficient shipping capacity, which leads to increases in the cost of shipment; lack of warehousing; lack of truck and rail capacity, and a shortage of labor across the board.”