Preliminary Class 8 net orders are down in February

Preliminary February North American Class 8 net truck orders saw declines, according to recent data respectively issued by freight transportation consultancy FTR and ACT Research, a provider of data and analysis for trucks and other commercial vehicles.  

FTR reported that preliminary February North American Class 8 net orders—at 21,100—was down 2% compared to January and were down 53% annually. For the last 12 months, FTR said Class 8 orders came in at 320,000.

FTR officials said that OEMs continue to book fleet requirements a portion at a time in order to not overbook their production schedules. And they added that OEMs are not confident that the supply chain will improve in the short term, so they are controlling the number of official orders very carefully, keeping backlogs at a manageable level. Backlogs should not change that much since February order numbers are close to the forecasted production rate, and the stability in the backlogs indicates the industry is content holding the number at the current level, according to FTR. Backlogs were very stable in 2021 and it is estimated that February backlogs will only be 4% higher than in April 2021, it also noted.  

“The steady order numbers do not reflect at all the huge demand for new trucks, said Don Ake, vice president of commercial vehicles for FTR, in a statement. “There is a severe shortage of new and used trucks and the economy continues to generate steady freight growth in all segments. Even with the recent stagnant booking volumes, orders for the last twelve months are at an impressive 320,000 units. However, the stable February order total is not good news for future production. By not booking more orders, OEMs are signaling that the supply chain remains clogged, and they don’t anticipate being able to ramp up production in the next couple of months.”

ACT data: ACT reported that February preliminary Class 8 net orders—at 21,000—were slightly offer from January’s preliminary tally, which came in at 21,300 units.

“Constrained production capabilities and long backlogs continue to impede new order activity,” said Kenny Vieth, ACT’s President and Senior Analyst, in a statement. “Based on preliminary February inputs, North American Classes 5-8 net orders were essentially flat compared to January. While order weakness is attributable to supply constraints, the ground rules of data collection play a part: The OEMs only report orders that are scheduled to be built within 12 months. With backlogs effectively stretching 12 months, and with limited forward visibility, order volumes have largely been mirroring production activity. As has been the case for months, we reiterate that with critical industry demand drivers at, or near, record levels, industry strength should be measured with long backlog lead-times, rather than in tepid new order activity.”