Preliminary North American Class 8 net truck orders, for the month of September, saw significant gains over August, according to recent data respectively issued by freight transportation consultancy FTR and ACT Research, a provider of data and analysis for trucks and other commercial vehicles.
FTR reported that preliminary September North American Class 8 net orders—at 56,500—easily topped the August tally by 169% and was up 102% annually, with the firm reporting that over the last 12 months through September, Class 8 orders came in at 254,000 units. What’s more, FTR said that September’s number represents the most orders ever in a single month.
And it also noted that September’s tally points to what it labeled a tremendous amount of pent-up demand, adding that even though September’ surge can be viewed as a positive, the flip side is that build rates continue to be impacted by component shortages, as suppliers continue to face supply chain bottlenecks and labor shortages.
“With order boards officially open for 2023 build spots, Q4 monthly order levels will likely be dependent on how far into 2023 manufacturers are comfortable accepting orders amidst an unforgiving supply chain environment that is now expected to persist well into 2023,” said Charles Roth, commercial vehicle analyst for FTR, in a statement. Demand continues to put pressure on manufacturers as many dealerships have now indicated that OEMs are now allocating production capacity for 2023 build slots. This is in large part an effort to improve on time delivery performance while also reducing the impact a potential component shortage may have on production plans. Many dealers have indicated that as a result of component availability they have had orders pushed out into the future or delayed as a result of red tag units having to be finished off-line.”
Roth also noted that fleet confidence remains solid entering 2023, as many large national fleets are getting their truck orders in as early as possible for next year's deliveries.
“Due to the limited availability of new equipment fleets have not been able to phase out aged equipment over the past two years. As a result, we anticipate replacement demand to stay elevated throughout 2023.”
ACT data: September preliminary North American Class 8 orders came in at 53,700 units, also a new monthly high, according to ACT, well above August’s preliminary number, at 21,600 units.
“The strength in orders reflects OEMs’ having fully opened their orderboards for 2023 a bit earlier than normal, as the seasonally weak period for truck orders typically runs May-September,” said Eric Crawford, ACT’s Vice President and Senior Analyst, in a statement. “As such, typical seasonal adjustment is not as useful a statistic this month: September’s orders translate to 60,900 on an SA basis (+161% m/m, +94% y/y), equivalent to more than 730k units on a seasonally adjusted annualized basis. Using an October seasonal adjustment factor (typically the beginning of next-year orders) would translate to 43,800 units, equivalent to ~526k on an annualized basis. September Class 8 orders were sensational no matter how you slice the data. Over the past 12 months, 249,800 Class 8 orders have been booked.”