September retail sales see gains, according to Commerce and NRF data

United States September retail sales saw gains, according to data issued earlier today by the United States Department of Commerce and the National Retail Federation (NRF).

Commerce reported that September retail sales, at $625.4 billion, were up 0.7% compared to August and up 13.9% annually. And it added that total retail sales, from July through September, saw a 14.9% annual increase compared to the same period a year ago.

Retail trade sales saw a 0.8% gain, from August to September, and food services and drinking places saw a 29.5% annual gain.

The NRF observed that September retail sales gains were driven by concerns over the Delta Variant leading to gains in consumer spending, as opposed to services-based activities like dining and travel, despite the pairing of supply chain disruptions and inflation.

And it added that its calculation of retail sales, which excludes automobile dealers, gasoline stations, and restaurants to focus on core retail, showed a 0.7% seasonally-adjusted increase, from August to September, with September up 11% unadjusted annually. The organization added that retail sales were up 10.7% unadjusted annually on a three-month moving average.

Through the first nine months of 2021, NRF reported that retail sales, as per its calculations, were up 14.5% annually, which is in line with its revised forecast of a 10.5%-to-13.5% annual gain, to between $4.44 trillion-to-$4.56 trillion.

“The reopening of the economy was interrupted by COVID-19 and consumer spending other than retail hit a speed bump toward the end of summer,” NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said in a statement. “Consumers remained active, but retail sales didn’t reflect as much of a shift away from goods to services as expected. That was a plus for retail because consumers still have a hyper-ability to spend thanks to wage and job gains and the household savings built up during the pandemic. In addition, some back-to-school spending may have spilled over from August into September because of school districts that delayed opening until after Labor Day. Overall, the September report is very promising for a strong finish for the year. Nonetheless, rising inflation and slower supply chains remain a concern. Spending might have been higher if not for shortages of items consumers are eager to purchase.”

Naveen Jaggi, President Retail Advisory Services, JLL, observed in a research note that, for many consumers, there is a pent-up demand for in-person shopping and experiences after the hiatus brought forth by the pandemic.

“From September 2020 compared to September 2021, shows an increase in retail sales for each kind of business,” wrote Jaggi. “These results show consumers are feeling comfortable returning to in-person shopping compared to this time last year. However, as retail sales rise, the supply chain disruptions are drawing concerns to retailers. The labor shortage and congestion at the ports are forcing retailers and manufacturers to have an increasingly difficult time keeping store shelves filled and fulfilling online orders, creating more pressure this holiday season. We are encouraging our retail clients to make consumers aware of the challenges this season and to plan their shopping accordingly. As a result, more consumers will plan ahead for this holiday season and we should expect October retail sales to continue to grow.”