Study issued by Coyote and Emsi examines themes related to the truck driver shortage

The longstanding theme, or narrative, of the ongoing commercial truck driver shortage, never seems to take a rest in freight transportation, logistics, and supply chain circles. A new study issued by global third-party logistics (3PL) services provider Coyote Logistics LLC, a subsidiary of UPS, and labor market analytics firm Emsi, which was released this week, examined the myriad issues and challenges this topic represents on various fronts.

Entitled, “Drivers Wanted: Using data to understand the commercial truck driver shortage,” the study observed that while the American Trucking Associations (ATA), for example, has stated that there has been a driver shortage for the last 15 years, whereas the Bureau of Labor Statistics has reported there are high rates of occupational attachment among truck drivers that haul freight, which, in turn, suggests that over time the labor market would respond to price signals in a roughly normal and predictable way.

What’s more, the study noted that between 2019 and 2020, there were more than 14 million truck driver job postings, an indication that drivers are in “extremely high demand and failure to meet this demand over the long haul will have widespread consequences.” And it also observed that going back to 2019m heavy tractor trailer drivers grew by 2.1%, to 1.9 million jobs, with heavy tractor trailer driving comprising more than 30% of total transportation and warehousing jobs.

Not surprisingly, the study noted that an aging workforce remains an issue in attracting and retaining drivers, with almost 57% of all truck drivers being over the age of 45 and 23% over 55, representing almost one-quarter of the current driver workforce reaching retirement age in the next decade, which does not include the almost 8% of truckers currently over retirement age.

“The workforce composition suggests that young workers are not being recruited at rates that will replace current workers as they exit the market due to age or disability,” the study said. “This issue is further compounded by a relative dearth of younger workers overall compared to the abundance of baby boomers. However, you parse the debate about a current commercial driver shortage, we are certainly facing a near-term future long-haul driver shortage if current trends continue.”   

Rob Sentz, Chief Innovation Officer at Emsi supported that notion, telling LM that the aging workforce in the commercial trucking space is one of the biggest issues in the industry.

“With so many workers above 45 and even 55, there will be a need to replace them when they exit the market in order to hold the workforce steady,” said Sentz. “Another thing to consider is that this is only related to job churn. If the demand for these jobs continues to grow, it will add even more complexity.”

As for what can be done to shift that narrative, Sentz explained that using a multi-pronged strategy is key in attracting new talent into the commercial driving space.

“Younger workers are concerned about compensation, but they often think and care about their quality of life and lifestyle just as much,” he said. “As a result, compensation needs to be good, but lifestyle and opportunities for career advancement and growth are also critical. Companies should think about how to help their people gain the education they need to progress in their careers, the work-life balance they can offer, and how they can retain employees long-term.”

While the truck driver pool continues to age, the study cited how the situation is quite different in warehousing, with more than 62% of warehousing jobs filled by workers under the age of 45, with all warehousing jobs having grown since 2019, with warehouse occupations seeing far more hires than postings, at a rate of about two hires for every job posting over most of the last four years.  

Sentz explained that to bring more workers into commercial trucking, it is important to look at skillsets and interest.

“Not everyone in warehousing is going to be a good fit for commercial trucking roles, so the first step is knowing who will be the right-fit candidates,” he said. “Second, you will want to approach these prospects with offers that would appeal to them. Again, this is related to compensation, lifestyle, and growth. If commercial trucking careers offer a better quality of life, jobseekers will more likely be interested. Finally, being willing to pay for and facilitate the training that new entrants in commercial trucking would require will help remove a key barrier of entry. This is the cost of training; plus the time it would take to move people into those roles.” 

As for how COVID-19 has impacted trucking, the study said that trucking had 4.1 million unique job advertisements in 2019, which dropped to 2.5 million postings in 2020.

“Much of this is likely related to the fact that while companies like Amazon and Walmart thrived under COVID conditions, countless small businesses, which generate huge demand for trucking and transport, suffered,” according to the study. “Restaurants and local shops on Main Streets across America essentially stopped making purchases for their businesses, either because they were locked down or because they lost their customer base. And like the butterfly effect, the woes of small business owners appear to have thrown quite a wrench in the trucking activity.”

When asked if the combination of more people getting vaccinated, coupled with the expiration of federal stimulus funding, could serve as a lever to increase driver numbers, Sentz said that is a possibility.  

“Right now, I think the biggest issue is the number of people in commercial trucking nearing retirement and the lack of workers coming behind them,” he said. “Government funds and perceived risk or fear of the virus keeps people out of the market, so seeing those factors go away will likely help.”