Truck tonnage delivers strong October results, reports ATA

Truck tonnage volumes in October were strong, according to data issued today by the American Trucking Associations (ATA).

The ATA’s advanced seasonally-adjusted (SA) For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index headed up 6.3% to 119.9 in October over September’s 112.8 (2015=100). This followed a 0.1% (revised from –0.8%) gain from August to September and a 2% (which was raised following an originally reported 1.8%) decrease from July to August and a 1.9% increase from June to July.

On an annual basis, SA tonnage is up 9.5% compared to October 2017’s 3.8% annual spread. Through the first ten months of 2018, SA tonnage is up 7.3% annually.

The ATA’s not seasonally-adjusted (NSA) index, which represents the change in tonnage actually hauled by fleets before any seasonal adjustment and the metric ATA says fleets should benchmark their levels with, came in at 124.4, marking an 11.8% annual increase.

“After slowing at the end of the third quarter, truck freight surged in October,” said ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello in a statement. “Last month’s strength was due, at least in part, to strong import numbers, especially on the West Coast. This is likely a pull ahead of imports as shippers try to take delivery of goods before January 1 when tariffs on a large list of goods China increases from 10% to 25%.”

Speaking on a recent conference call hosted by investment firm Stifel earlier this year, Costello said that there are a few drivers of the current solid freight activity, including consumer spending, construction activity, manufacturing activity, and inventory levels throughout the supply chain.

“[L]ooking at the over-the-road TL and LTL markets, I like to look at factory output,” he said. “2018 is shaping up to be the highest level of production since 2007, and 2019 should be the highest on record. If we look at year-over-year growth rates, we're going to go essentially no growth in the sector from 2015 and 2016 to 2.8% growth this year and over 3% growth next year.”