Truck tonnage falls again in May, reports ATA

Following April, which posted its largest annual seasonally-adjusted (SA) decline since April 2009 and its largest decline for any month going back to 1994, truck tonnage saw some improvements in May, according to data issued today by the American Trucking Associations (ATA).

The ATA’s advanced SA For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index for May—at 106.1 (2015=100)—was down 1% in May, following a 10.3% (downwardly revised from -12.2%) April decrease, which came in 107.2. On an annual basis, May SA tonnage was down 9.6%, which ATA said represents the largest annual decline going back to 2009 during the Great Recession of 2008-2009, with the caveat that SA tonnage is not falling at the same rate as it was during that period.

What’s more, ATA said that the April 2009 annual SA decline was 14%, adding that April’s annual SA decline was 9.4%. On a year-to-date basis, SA tonnage is down 2.6% annually through May.

The ATA’s not seasonally-adjusted (NSA) index, which represents the change in tonnage actually hauled by fleets before any seasonal adjustment and the metric ATA says fleets should benchmark their levels with, was 109.8 in May (2015=100), marking a 2.8% increase over April’s 106.9.

While tonnage fell in May, even though other economic indicators like retail sales and housing starts rose, I’m not overly concerned,” said ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello, in a statement. “First, while down over 10 percent sequentially in April, truck tonnage did not fall as much as other economic indicators that month. This means that any rebound is tougher since tonnage didn’t fall substantially to begin with. Second, there are indications that freight continues to improve as more and more states and localities lift lockdown restrictions.”  

Costello added that while the overall economy will likely take more than a year to recover, assuming the pandemic doesn’t spike again, the trucking industry could recover back to pre-COVID levels before many other industries because it hasn’t fallen as much.

“As retail sales improve and housing starts recover, that will help trucking,” he said. “The risk for trucking is that the virus surges again and places start to shut back down again.”