U.S.-bound imports remain elevated in January, reports Panjiva

United States-bound import activity got off to a very strong start in January, according to data issued this week by global trade intelligence firm Panjiva.

Total January Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units (TEU)—at 2,797,599—were up 15.7% annually, which was off compared to December’s 21.0% annual gain while still up by double-digits for the fifth consecutive month. And total shipments—at 1,234,395—posted a 20% annual gain. Panjiva noted that the growth in shipments has outpaced the growth in TEU by an average 4.3% over the past 12 months.

On the product side, for January, Panjiva reported the following import numbers:

• consumer discretionary products increased 26.3%, following January’s 34.3% annual gain;
• healthcare products rose 37.3%, with equipment and PPE imports up 37.9%, and pharmaceuticals, excluding SARS-COV-2 vaccines, up 28.4%;
• household/personal care products were up 50.5% while off 26.1% from the July peak;
• total consumer staples were up 34.8%, up from December’s 31.7% gain;
• consumer discretionary imports were up 26.3%;
• consumer electronics rose 17.2%;
• home furnishings rose 34.4%;
• textiles and apparel decreased 1.9%, down for the first time since August 2020; and
• total industrial imports were up 13.4%, down from December’s 19.2%

Looking at trade lanes, the report observed that exports from China, including Hong Kong, were up 22.7% annually. Imports from the rest of Asia headed up 16%, including a 16.7% decline in imports from Taiwan and a 1.2% decline in shipments from Japan. Imports out of Europe showed ongoing gains, rising 19.1%, topping December’s 13% gain.

Panjiva Research Director Chris Rogers said in an interview that this most recent batch of data represents a lot of moving parts working towards surprisingly high numbers to start 2021, for both annual growth percentage and total volumes.

“This is the kind of level of shipments you would only normally see in the October Peak Season for deliveries, and it is effectively a sign of just how strong demand has been for shipping services,” he explained. “Underlying demand for goods is clearly still strong and has been strong for a long time.”

That also speaks to growth rates at ports throughout the U.S., according to Rogers, with Panjiva seeing accelerated growth rates across ports in the Southeastern U.S. and the Eastern seaboard, too.

And what Panjiva saw in January and is seeing in February so far is what Rogers called a hangover effect of deliveries that were not made in previous months, with ongoing port congestion out West, and a major reason as to why import levels remain elevated.

“February and March are typically the two most off-Peak months of the year, but these backlogs need to be cleared,” he said. “If there are 25 vessels each carrying 15,000 TEU, that is 375,000 TEU waiting to come off the boats. On its own, that is nearly one-fifth of total TEU volume you would expect for February. Another factor is that many Chinese factories are not shutting down for the Lunar New Year…there is still demand for goods. That lull in vessels leaving China in late January and early January does not seem to be happening. That could effectively keep shipments higher for a while longer.”

Rogers added that a watchful eye will be needed in the coming months when looking at annual comparisons, beginning in the second quarter, as the COVID-19 pandemic had a major impact on May and June volumes to the U.S.

“It is continued demand and clearing congestion that really continued the high level of shipping we saw in January,” he said.