U.S.-bound import growth track remains promising, notes Port Tracker report

Amid various supply chain issues, United States retail container ports are expected to see imports top the 2-million mark in May for the first time since October, according to the new edition of the Port Tracker report, which was issued today by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and maritime consultancy Hackett Associates.

The ports surveyed in the report include: Los Angeles/Long Beach; Oakland; Tacoma; Seattle; Houston; New York/New Jersey; Hampton Roads; Charleston, and Savannah; Miami; Jacksonville; and Fort Lauderdale, Fla.-based Port Everglades.

Authors of the report explained that cargo import numbers do not correlate directly with retail sales or employment because they count only the number of cargo containers brought into the country, not the value of the merchandise inside them, adding that the amount of merchandise imported provides a rough barometer of retailers’ expectations.

“U.S. imports are continuing to increase despite another disruption impacting U.S. ports,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said. “As retailers have adjusted to limits on the use of the Panama Canal and the Red Sea, we now face the shutdown of the Port of Baltimore to vessel traffic. While it is not expected to have a national impact, the tragic collapse of the Francis Scott Key Bridge shows the ongoing need for flexibility and resiliency in every company’s supply chain. We are monitoring the situation closely as retailers who are affected adjust their shipping plans to ensure cargo is getting to where it needs to be.”

Addressing the tragic March 26 collapse of the Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore, the report observed that while the Port of Baltimore’s import volumes are not included in the report—as its data is collected later than other ports—the port’s current closure is having a “regional impact,” with cargo being diverted to other ports on the East Coast.

And Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett observed that the situation in Baltimore will likely shift container imports and exports to New York/New Jersey, Virginia and other surrounding ports until a shipping channel is cleared, perhaps as soon as within a couple of months.

Addressing other ongoing supply chain issues, Hackett said that carriers have rerouted around the Red Sea and Suez Canal following attacks on vessels earlier this year while adding additional vessels and increasing vessel speed to make up for longer voyages.

“Doing so has resulted in relatively stable supply chains within a short period of time,” Hackett said. “A word of caution, however, is that any further pressures on capacity could seriously impact the market.”

For February, the most recent month for which data is available, Port Tracker reported that import volume, for the ports covered in the report, came in at 1.96 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units (TEU), down 0.3% compared to January, and up 26.4% annually, when many factories in Asia were shut down for the Lunar New Year holiday.

Port Tracker issued projections for March and the subsequent months, including:

• March, at 1.8 million TEU, for an 11% annual increase;
• April, at 1.93 million TEU, for an 8.4% annual increase;
• May, at 2.04 million TEU, for a 5.5% annual increase, which would mark the highest level since October’s 2.06 million TEU;
• June, at 2 million TEU, for an 8.9% annual increase;
• July, at 2.04 million TEU, for a 6.6% annual increase; and
• August, at 2.09 million TEU, for a 6.9% annual increase

For calendar year 2023, total U.S.-bound retail container imports, at 22.3 million TEU, were down 12.8% compared to 2022.  The report observed that this was in line with expectations, adding that the shift to growth in its forecast is intact.

Should these numbers come to fruition, total volume for the first half of 2024 would come in at 11.7 million TEU, an 11% annual gain compared to the same period in 2023.