Q1 intermodal volumes are up for second straight quarter, reports IANA

Intermodal volumes kicked off 2024 with solid first quarter growth, according to data issued this week by the Intermodal Association of North America (IANA).

In its “Intermodal Quarterly,” IANA reported that total first quarter intermodal volume, at 4,286,600 units, rose 8.8% annually, growing for the second consecutive quarter, following eight straight quarters of annual declines. Domestic containers, at 1,993,687, saw a 3.4% annual increase, and trailers, at 144,342, fell 24.8% annually. All domestic equipment, which is comprised of trailers and domestic containers, came in at 2,138,029, eking out a 0.9% annual increase. And ISO, or international, containers, at 2,148,571, rose 18.0%.

IANA explained in the report that despite high interest rates, moderating—but lingering—inflation, and fears of a consumer spending and industrial production pullback, the U.S. economy remained surprisingly resilient in the first quarter, coupled with the March ISM Manufacturing Index growing in March, for the first time since September 2022. And it added that consumer spending “continued to work down bloated inventories, driving imports in the face of trade disruptions in the Red Sea and at the Panama Canal.”

It also noted that first quarter volumes moved up in what it called a typical quarterly seasonal pattern, pointing to an August or September peak, adding that the upward momentum was mainly driven by a surge in West Coast imports and leading to an increase in international container traffic.

IANA President and CEO Joni Casey told LM that strong demand for consumer products during the first quarter was the biggest driver for growth, translating to increased international import volumes, as well as domestic transloads of these items.

When asked about intermodal volumes, to date, in the second quarter, Casey said it’s too early to tell, but there are no signs of significantly adverse trends. 

“Volumes seem to be holding fairly steady so far,” she said.

And she also noted that 2024 Peak Season prospects are promising.

“Volumes are trending towards a normal August/September peak season, in line with the U.S. import forecast that the National Retail Federation has issued,” noted Casey. “If OTR (over the road) capacity tightens as some expect it will, we could see a longer and slightly stronger peak period.”

Looking ahead to the balance of 2024, IANA explained that with West Coast-bound U.S. imports heading up, international containers moving my rail are expected to see a 9.0% annual increase, despite tougher upcoming quarterly comparisons. And it added that loose trucking conditions are expected to dint domestic container growth, pegging a 2.5% annual increase, with trailers estimated to decline 20.3%, with total 2024 intermodal volume expected to increase 2.4% annually.