AAR reports mixed volumes for March 2014

Carload and intermodal volumes were mixed on an annual basis in March, according to data released by the Association of American Railroads (AAR) this week.

Carloads for the month—at 1,117,029—were down 3.4 percent, or 39,793 carloads, compared to March 2014.

Intermodal—at 1,084,136 containers and trailers—was up 5.7 percent, or 58,161 units, annually. And the weekly average for intermodal in March at 550,291 is the highest going back to March 2007 at the beginning of the Great Recession and 21.5 percent higher than the weekly average in March 2009.

Of the 20 commodities tracked by the AAR, 8 were up annually in March. Grain was up 8,896 carloads (21.2 percent), and metallic ores were up 3,377 carloads (19.1 percent). Coal was down 31,205 carloads (6.9 percent).

“Like other key economic indicators, rail traffic is presenting a mixed message,” said AAR Senior Vice President John T. Gray in a statement. “Rail intermodal traffic rebounded well in March, but many carload commodities did not.  Coal is facing a number of headwinds. There are risks going forward, to be sure, but for now we see no reason to think that the economy won’t continue its recent pattern of relatively modest growth.”

For the week ending March 29, U.S. railroads originated 301,317 carloads for a 7.2 percent annual gain, and intermodal was up 13.5 percent at 265,188.

On a year-to-date basis for the first 13 weeks of 2014, U.S. carloads at 3,602,739 are up 0.9 percent compared to the corresponding period a year ago, and intermodal is up 3.8 percent at 3,202,999 containers and trailers.

Bill Rennicke, a partner at Boston-based Oliver Wyman told LM that the overall rail market share of international intermodal is high and growth will track GDP. 

“Some shifting of traffic off the west coast to Canada and to the East Coast may occur, but it will be at the margin as the Seattle – Portland corridor is growing quickly and California will remain a huge consumer market that will still anchor vessel rotations into those ports,” he said. “But traffic requiring a two railroad haul from the Western ports to Eastern US markets may increasingly shift to East Coast ports.”

For the week ending March 28, carloads in the U.S. were down 0.7 percent at 284,935, and intermodal was up 5 percent at 278,345 trailers and containers.

Through the first three months of 2015, carloads are up 0.3 percent at 3,367,082, and intermodal is up 0.1 percent at 3,018,598 units.