Subscribe to our free, weekly email newsletter!


Global Logistics: Asia Pacific’s challenges and opportunities in market integration

By Patrick Burnson, Executive Editor
September 01, 2012

Mixed forecast
Asia Pacific’s rapid-growth markets (RGMs) started to slow sharply since the beginning of this year, but this will only be a “temporary blip,” according to Ernst & Young’s quarterly Rapid-Growth Markets Forecast (RGMF). The analysts are particularly bullish on the recovery of Vietnam and Thailand.
“RGMs—particularly in Asia—have the necessary tools available to ease both fiscal and monetary policy allowing growth to resume towards the end of the year,” says Carl Astorri, senior economic adviser to Ernst & Young’s RGMF.

He says that RGMs are well placed to weather the major risks facing the global economy at the present time, given that they have the space to relax fiscal and monetary policy. “This has already happened in some RGMs—especially in India and China—and it’s likely that there will be further easing of monetary policy in the months ahead, particularly if the global economy deteriorates further.”

Analysts at Ti also forecast that the Asia Pacific contract logistics market will grow at a compound annual growth rate of 13.9 percent between now and 2015. Growth will be strongest in China and the market is expected to double in size by 2015.

“China will become the largest market in the region overtaking Japan, which will see the lowest level of growth,” says Ti analyst Cathy Roberson. “However, the region remains susceptible to any deterioration in the global economy as exports and subsequently domestic demand would have a significant impact on the contract logistics industry.”

The Association of Asia Pacific Airlines noted a slight decline of 0.8 percent compared to July 2011, while Asian ports continued to report mixed results with Hong Kong’s twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) declining almost 7 percent, but Singapore reporting a 9 percent increase. The mixed port data may indicate increasing demand among the Southeastern Asian countries as foreign investment continues to be infused into this region.

While domestic demand in the region generally remained strong, external demand declined. Exports to Europe fell considerably, resulting in a decline in manufacturing activity and acted as a drag on growth within the region.

Zepol Corporation, a leading trade intelligence company, reports that U.S. exports to Asia have been ramping up, thereby benefitting a number of major seaports. But U.S. manufacturers are continuing to lose market share.  At the same time, industry analysts note that Asian countries have negotiated more than 160 trade agreements among themselves, while the U.S. has signed only three with regional countries—Singapore, Australia, and most recently South Korea.

 

About the Author

image
Patrick Burnson
Executive Editor

Patrick Burnson is executive editor for Logistics Management and Supply Chain Management Review magazines and web sites. Patrick is a widely-published writer and editor who has spent most of his career covering international trade, global logistics, and supply chain management. He lives and works in San Francisco, providing readers with a Pacific Rim perspective on industry trends and forecasts. You can reach him directly at .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address).


Subscribe to Logistics Management magazine

Subscribe today. It's FREE!
Get timely insider information that you can use to better manage your
entire logistics operation.
Start your FREE subscription today!

Recent Entries

Last week, the United States Department of Transportation took further steps to address various issues identified in recent train accidents involving crude oil and ethanol shipped by rail. The announcement was made by DOT with other DOT agencies, including the Federal Railroad Administration (FRA) and the Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration (PHMSA).

Logistics Management Group News Editor Jeff Berman had an opportunity to interview Derek Leathers, President and Chief Operating Officer of Werner Enterprises, at this month's NASSTRAC Shippers Conference and Transportation Expo in Orlando. They discussed various aspects of the truckload market, including prices, fuel, and regulations.

During this webcast our presenters will apply the findings of the 23rd Annual Trends & Issues in Transportation and Logistics Study to the world of shipper-carrier decision making. They'll examine the primary aspects that will influence the future direction for shipper-carrier decision-making.

For February, the month for which most recent data is available, the SCI dropped to -1.0 from January’s 2.6, with FTR explaining that the short term positive impact from one-time adjustments for rapidly dropping diesel prices and the suspension of the 2013 motor carriers hours-of-service expires later this year.

Seasonally-adjusted (SA) for-hire truck tonnage in March was up 1.1 percent on the heels of a revised 2.8 percent (from 3.1 percent) February decline, with the SA index at 133.5 (2000=100). This is off 0.3 percent from the all-time high for the SA of 135.8 from January 2015 and is up 5 percent annually.

Comments

Post a comment
Commenting is not available in this channel entry.


© Copyright 2015 Peerless Media LLC, a division of EH Publishing, Inc • 111 Speen Street, Ste 200, Framingham, MA 01701 USA