Good, But Not Great, Rebound

Beacon Economics' forecast for the U.S. economy continues to be optimistic - in the short run

By ·

Beacon Economics’ forecast for the U.S. economy continues to be optimistic - in the short run.

“We expect overall national growth to continue in the 2 percent to 3 percent range for the second half of 2010,” spokesmen said. “One reason is that a large proportion of Federal stimulus dollars have yet to hit the economy. As they find their way to Main Street, 2010 could end up being a very strong year.”

But that’s the short run, analysts added, and a solid 2010 does not necessarily mean the same for 2011 or 2012. Indeed, Beacon Economics is growing more pessimistic about the medium run:

“The positive signs we’re seeing in the here and now are due primarily to monetary and fiscal policy and not because the U.S. economy has moved beyond the issues that plagued it two years ago,” they said.

Meanwhile, California-based Beacon Economics is forecasting that the Golden State’s unemployment rate will fall slowly from the peak it hit in the 2nd quarter of 2010 (12.6 percent), and remain above 10 percent through the end of 2011.

“We forecast that total nonfarm employment in the state will grow - but at an equally slow pace. Don’t expect employment in the state to reach its 2007 peak until 2015.” They said.

Today, the biggest risk facing California labor markets is the Federal Reserve being forced to raise interest rates to combat the threat of inflation - in turn having a negative effect on growth and hiring in 2011 and 2012.

“Like everything concerning the economy today, the future largely depends on the policy decisions being made in Washington” concluded Beacon.


About the Author

Patrick Burnson, Executive Editor
Patrick Burnson is executive editor for Logistics Management and Supply Chain Management Review magazines and web sites. Patrick is a widely-published writer and editor who has spent most of his career covering international trade, global logistics, and supply chain management. He lives and works in San Francisco, providing readers with a Pacific Rim perspective on industry trends and forecasts. You can reach him directly at [email protected]

Subscribe to Logistics Management Magazine!

Subscribe today. It's FREE!
Get timely insider information that you can use to better manage your entire logistics operation.
Start your FREE subscription today!

Article Topics

All Topics
Latest Whitepaper
The View from the New “Single Window”
The single window, officially known as the "International Trade Data System," operates via the Customs and Border Protection (CBP) agency's Automated Commercial Environment (ACE) platform, and serves as a single point of contact for all trade filings.
Download Today!
From the March 2017 Issue
WMS vendors are stepping up to the plate and developing functionalities and solutions that meet the complex needs of today’s companies. Our top analysts take a peek into these developments and discuss the DC of the future and the software that will support it.
5 Supply Chain Trends Happening Now
2017 Warehouse/DC Equipment Survey: Investment up as service pressures rise
View More From this Issue
Subscribe to Our Email Newsletter
Sign up today to receive our FREE, weekly email newsletter!
Latest Webcast
2017 Trucking Regulations & Infrastructure Update
In this session our panel brings shippers up to date on the state of transportation regulations. Discussion will revolve around regulatory reform, aspects of the federal highway bill and what the transportation landscape looks like in the early days of the Trump administration.
Register Today!
EDITORS' PICKS
LM Exclusive: Major Modes Join E-commerce Mix
While last mile carriers receive much of the attention, the traditional modal heavyweights are in...
ASEAN Logistics: Building Collectively
While most of the world withdraws inward, Southeast Asia is practicing effective cooperation between...

2017 Rate Outlook: Will the pieces fall into place?
Trade and transport analysts see a turnaround in last year’s negative market outlook, but as...
Logistics Management’s Top Logistics News Stories 2016
From mergers and acquisitions to regulation changes, Logistics Management has compiled the most...