Panjiva data shows a slight gain in U.S.-bound shipments
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July 20, 2010
The number of global manufacturers shipping to the United States continued in June with a 1 percent gain, according to data from Panjiva, an online search engine with detailed information on global suppliers and manufacturers.
June’s 1 percent gain follows a 9 percent jump from April to May and matching 3 percent gains for the previous two months. On an annual basis, June was 15 percent better than June 2009. Panjiva officials said the total number of global manufacturers shipping to the U.S. in June was 150,258, compared to 130,950 a year ago.
Panjiva also reported that there was a 1 percent increase in the number of U.S. companies receiving waterborne shipments from global manufacturers and a 2 percent increase from May to June. This matches up with a 2 percent month-to-month decrease for the same period last year and a 5 percent gain in 2008.
In an interview with LM, Green pointed out how recent data from the Department of Commerce noted how May imports were higher than expected at $194.51 billion, although there was not a subsequent bump in June based on Panjiva’s data; instead, there was a leveling off.
“Global trade activity according to our data is essentially right where it was two years ago just before the Great Recession,” said Green. “We have not experienced a bounce-back from the depths of 2009 back to pre-recession levels, and the question of where do we go from here is an open one.”
Green cited a recent conversation he had with a global manufacturing executive whom said we might be experiencing a ‘square root recovery,’ which is comprised of a significant drop, and a significant bounce-back followed by a level economy for some time.
Another factor impacting global trade growth centers on inventory build-up for global manufacturers shipping to the U.S. In recent weeks, it appears that the inventory build-up that occurred over the first half of the year has somewhat subsided.
And in the coming months, Green said it is reasonable to expect a run up in global trade activity leading up to the holiday season.
“My expectation, though, is that will be relatively modest growth, because retailers do not want to be caught with too much inventory,” said Green.
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