Ocean cargo concerns

While shippers may be heartened to hear that fewer ocean cargo vessels are being scrapped, and newbuildings are ramping up, some analysts are beginning to doubt if demand will sustain growth.

The good news released recently by Alphaliner about more carrier activity has been countered by Drewry Shipping Consultants’ latest Container Forecaster, which posits the idea that a “peak season” may fail to materialize.

“By no means do we see a precipitous fall, but there will be an impact,” said Neil Dekker, editor of the quarterly Container Forecaster. “The danger of a weaker recovery has been concealed by the fact that ocean carriers believe they have entered a real recovery phase.”

Furthermore, warns Dekker,  there is every possibility that utilization factors will decline, “which in turn will have a knock-on effect on freight rates.”