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Ocean cargo concerns

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The Container Forecaster (formerly the Drewry Container Market Quarterly) aims to provide liner shipping participants, investors and observers with a comprehensive analysis and forecast of both global demand and supply.

By Patrick Burnson, Executive Editor
July 07, 2010

While shippers may be heartened to hear that fewer ocean cargo vessels are being scrapped, and newbuildings are ramping up, some analysts are beginning to doubt if demand will sustain growth.

The good news released recently by Alphaliner about more carrier activity has been countered by Drewry Shipping Consultants’ latest Container Forecaster, which posits the idea that a “peak season” may fail to materialize.

“By no means do we see a precipitous fall, but there will be an impact,” said Neil Dekker, editor of the quarterly Container Forecaster. “The danger of a weaker recovery has been concealed by the fact that ocean carriers believe they have entered a real recovery phase.”

Furthermore, warns Dekker,  there is every possibility that utilization factors will decline, “which in turn will have a knock-on effect on freight rates.”

About the Author

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Patrick Burnson
Executive Editor

Patrick Burnson is executive editor for Logistics Management and Supply Chain Management Review magazines and web sites. Patrick is a widely-published writer and editor who has spent most of his career covering international trade, global logistics, and supply chain management. He lives and works in San Francisco, providing readers with a Pacific Rim perspective on industry trends and forecasts. You can reach him directly at .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address).


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