Panjiva reports import growth is back on track in July

After negative growth in July, United States-bound waterborne shipments in July returned to growth, according to recent data issued by Panjiva, an online search engine with detailed information on global suppliers and manufacturers.

July shipments–at 974,489-were up 2.2 percent annually and up 4.6 percent compared to June, due primarily to growth from the European Union (shipments up 5.7 percent) and China (up 4.8 percent), which were aided by the strong dollar, coupled with furniture (up 6.7 percent) and toys (up 10.3 percent) shipments both seeing gains.

On a year-to-date basis through July, shipments are 6,319,000, which marks a slight 0.12 percent annual increase.

Panjiva said July’s import level marks the highest level for July going back to 2007.

Imports seeing declines in July included imports from Japan down 8.7 percent and autos and auto parts, the largest import group by shipment, were down 0.9 percent.

“What this data tells us is that the U.S. is outperforming the rest of the world,” said Panjiva Research Director Chris Rodgers. “Import prices continue to come down so the actual kind of published import number is not necessarily a reflection of the underlying economy, which is reasonably good at the moment. And from a political perspective, with the U.S. in an election year, more imports reflects a stronger economy which also means an increase in the trade deficit.”

As for how 2016 may pan out in terms of total U.S.-bound waterborne shipments, Panjiva said that based on data for the last six years, 57.2 percent of imports for the year have been completed by the end of July. And using year-to-date figures, Panjiva said this translates into 2016 U.S.-bound waterborne shipments being up 1.6 percent annually in 2016, which is off from last month’s estimate of 2 percent annual growth, and would equate to 11.04 million shipments for the year.

Rogers said that annual increase is due largely to a very strong January and February to kick off 2016, which were up 11 and 13 percent, respectively, annually, followed by down months in March and April and modest increases in June and July.