Truck tonnage volumes dip in April, reports American Trucking Associations

The current state of truck tonnage appears to be on a rocky road, based on data issued by the American Trucking Associations (ATA) today.

Seasonally-adjusted (SA) for-hire truck tonnage in April dropped 3 percent in April on the heels of a revised gain of 0.4 percent (down from 1.1 percent) in March, while the SA index of 128.6 (2000=100) came in at its lowest level since April 2014. ATA said the all-time high for the SA is January 2015’s 135.8, which easily surpasses April by 7.2 percent.

On an annual basis, the April SA is up 1 percent, falling short of March’s 4.2 percent gain, and is the lowest annual gain going back to February 2013. On a year-to-date basis through April, the ATA said SA tonnage is up 3.8 percent annually.

The ATA’s not seasonally-adjusted (NSA) index, which represents the change in tonnage actually hauled by fleets before any seasonal adjustment, was 130.6 in April, coming in 5.9 percent below March. Compared to April 2014, the NSA was down 0.7 percent. 

Compared to its 2015 high in January, the ATA said April tonnage is down 5.3 percent.

“Like most economic indicators, truck tonnage was soft in April,” said ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello in a statement. “Unless tonnage snaps back in May and June, GDP growth will likely be suppressed in the second quarter. The next couple of months will be telling for both truck freight and the broader economy. Any significant jump from the first quarter is looking more doubtful.”

This data is the latest in a recent batch of underwhelming economic reports, including low April retail sales, a 0.2 first quarter GDP advance estimate, recent gains in gas prices, and a slower level of manufacturing growth.

Despite these metrics, many trucking executives describe current market conditions as relatively steady, but against the backdrop of what was expected to be an improving year for freight volumes in the beginning of the year is now ostensibly failing to meet expectations.

As previously reported by LM, a brighter U.S. outlook has been a common theme in the freight transportation and supply chain sectors, despite relatively ordinary macroeconomic indicators. Industry experts have told LM that part of that is due to increasing e-commerce traction, and still-decent manufacturing growth, and relatively solid jobs numbers, although April’s jobs report was lower than expected.

And a Wall Street analyst observed that future volume gains are a solid possibility.

“Volume declines were accentuated by an unusually strong March as cargo was cleared from the West Coast ports,” wrote Deutsche Bank analyst Rob Salmon in a research note. “We expect truck tonnage to continue to grow in 2015 given growth in housing, a stronger consumer (rising employment and lower gas prices are inflating disposable income), expected growth in U.S. imports, and higher automotive production.”