Global Logistics: Asia Pacific’s challenges and opportunities in market integration

By Patrick Burnson, Executive Editor
September 01, 2012 - LM Editorial

Real GDP in China grew only 7.6 percent year-on-year in the second quarter of 2012, its slowest pace in three years, observes IHS Global Insight Economist Sara Johnson. While the current slowdown in China is not nearly as severe as it was in 2008 and 2009, she says that in many ways China is more “vulnerable” now.

“Credit markets are overstretched, house prices are still unsustainably high, commercial banks are weak, and local government debt is high,” says Johnson. “All this suggests that growth this year and next will only be in the 7.5 percent to 8 percent range. On the other hand, given the recent aggressive policy response by the central bank and government, the odds of a hard landing are no more than 25 percent.”

Japan’s economy, meanwhile, bounced back after its crippling earthquake and tsunami, and a period of contraction. Rebuilt supply chains and investment added to the growth. However a strong yen continued to have a negative impact on exports and led to an increasing migration of manufacturing to its neighbors.

Ti analysts say that Indonesia is expected to be one of the strongest economies in the region, with retail sales growing at 25 percent a year. Malaysia and Thailand are expected to recover from supply chain disruptions, although will be hit hard by weak export markets in Europe. “With Western markets stagnating,” observes Manners-Bell, many economies in the region are looking to intra-regional trade for stronger growth prospects.”

image


About the Author

image
Patrick Burnson
Executive Editor

Patrick Burnson is executive editor for Logistics Management and Supply Chain Management Review magazines and web sites. Patrick is a widely-published writer and editor who has spent most of his career covering international trade, global logistics, and supply chain management. He lives and works in San Francisco, providing readers with a Pacific Rim perspective on industry trends and forecasts. You can reach him directly at .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address).


Subscribe to Logistics Management magazine

Subscribe today. It's FREE!
Get timely insider information that you can use to better manage your
entire logistics operation.
Start your FREE subscription today!

Recent Entries

February manufacturing data issued today by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) dipped slightly compared to January, according to the most recent edition of the organization’s Manufacturing Report on Business.

As U.S. West Coast ports begin to address their critical congestion issues, an innovative approach is being launched at San Pedro Bay.

The ongoing financial travails of the Highway Trust Fund was made clear in a position paper recently issued by Jeff Davis, senior fellow at the Eno Center for Transportation. In the paper–entitled “Why Not A Ten-Year Surface Transportation Bill?”-Davis points to past federal transportation bills, as well as the White House’s GROW AMERICA proposal as having one fatal flaw in common: they each leave the HTF on worst financial shape after the bill expires than it was prior to the bill being enacted.

Working with research partner, The Economist Intelligence Unit, the IBM Institute for Business Value surveyed 1,023 global procurement executives from 41 countries in North America, Europe and Asia.

U.S. Carloads were down 7.8 percent annually at 259,544, and intermodal volume was off 15.7 percent for the week ending February 21 at 213,617 containers and trailers.

Comments

Post a comment
Commenting is not available in this channel entry.


© Copyright 2015 Peerless Media LLC, a division of EH Publishing, Inc • 111 Speen Street, Ste 200, Framingham, MA 01701 USA