MAPI analysis: Large deficit in U.S. trade in manufactures could foreshadow dim outlook for exports

U.S. deficit rises 8% in first quarter, Chinese surplus declines 8%; likely low export growth, rising deficit for U.S. through 2014.
By Modern Materials Handling Staff
May 28, 2014 - MMH Editorial

Disappointing first quarter growth in manufactured exports, together with a continued rise in the extremely large deficit, does not bode well for a resurgence in export competitiveness, according to an analysis from the Manufacturers Alliance for Productivity and Innovation (MAPI).

In the report, Ernest Preeg, Ph.D., MAPI senior advisor for international trade and finance, noted that U.S. manufactured exports grew by only 2%, to $281.9 billion, in the first quarter compared with 2013. The deficit surged by 8%, or by $8.1 billion, following the 9% increase in the fourth quarter of 2013.

Chinese manufactured exports declined by 4%, to $465.6 billion, while the surplus dropped by 8%, or by $16.3 billion. These figures reversed a high-growth path since 2009 that led to a surplus of more than $900 billion in 2013.

“One result of the rising U.S. deficit and the declining Chinese deficit is a dramatic shift in the composition of the rising deficit, away from China and toward the eurozone,” Preeg said. “Of the $8.1 billion increase in the U.S. deficit, less than $1 billion was with China and more than $4 billion was with the eurozone, principally Germany and France.”

Although the U.S. added 32 manufacturing jobs in the first quarter of 2014, Preeg estimates that the increase in the trade deficit caused a net loss of approximately 50,000 jobs in the American manufacturing sector.
“The outlook for the remainder of 2014 is for continued slow U.S. export growth and a rising deficit, but an uncertain course for China, which will be strongly influenced by targeted actions to restore export-oriented growth, particularly for technology-intensive industries,” Preeg concluded.



Subscribe to Logistics Management magazine

Subscribe today. It's FREE!
Get timely insider information that you can use to better manage your
entire logistics operation.
Start your FREE subscription today!

Recent Entries

The tired cliché of “Perfect Storm,” is probably lost on East Coast shippers now weathering fierce winter winds and snow, but the expression still has currency on the Pacific Rim.

Owners of corporate fleets and fuel buyers face two dilemmas: a limited supply of cost-effective, low greenhouse-gas fuels, and little information on fuel sustainability impacts across the full production and use value chain.

U.S. Carloads were up 5 percent annually at 294,738, and intermodal at 253,317 containers and trailers was up 3 percent.

When it comes to Congress actually getting its act together on a new long-term federal transportation bill, things remain as status quo as it gets, with the big takeaway being nothing really ever gets done, when it comes to passing a badly overdue and needed bill, rather than these band-aid extensions Congress keeps signing off on.

Truckload and intermodal pricing was up on an annual basis, according to the December edition of the Truckload and Intermodal Cost Indexes from Cass Information Systems and Avondale Partners.

Article Topics

News · Global · Technology · Global Trade · Manufacturing · MAPI · All topics

About the Author

Josh Bond, Associate Editor
Josh Bond is an associate editor to Modern. Josh was formerly Modern’s lift truck columnist and contributing editor, has a degree in Journalism from Keene State College and has studied business management at Franklin Pierce. Contact Josh Bond

Comments

Post a comment
Commenting is not available in this channel entry.