Port Tracker report presents a positive outlook for first half U.S.-bound import numbers

Despite various issues relating to the ongoing Houthi rebel attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea, the new edition of the Port Tracker report, which was issued today by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and maritime consultancy Hackett Associates, noted that United States retail container ports are pegged to post annual import gains over the first half of 2024.

The ports surveyed in the report include: Los Angeles/Long Beach; Oakland; Tacoma; Seattle; Houston; New York/New Jersey; Hampton Roads; Charleston, and Savannah; Miami; Jacksonville; and Fort Lauderdale, Fla.-based Port Everglades.

Authors of the report explained that cargo import numbers do not correlate directly with retail sales or employment because they count only the number of cargo containers brought into the country, not the value of the merchandise inside them, adding that the amount of merchandise imported provides a rough barometer of retailers’ expectations.

“Retailers continue to work with their partners to mitigate the impact of disruptions from the Red Sea and Panama Canal restrictions,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said in a statement. “Cargo has been rerouted and goods are arriving where they are needed and in time to meet consumer demand despite the ongoing challenges. Retailers have been impacted by costs and shipping delays, but they are working to minimize any impact on consumers.”

For January, the most recent month for which data is available, Port Tracker reported that import volume, for the ports covered in the report, came in at 1.96 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units (TEU), a 4.7% increase over December, and an 8.6% annual increase.

Port Tracker issued projections for February and the subsequent months, including:

• February (which is typically the slowest month of the year, due to Lunar New Year factory shutdowns in Asia, with the timing of the holiday and its impact on cargo and annual comparisons varying), at 1.9 million TEU, for a 22.7% annual increase;
• March, at 1.77 million TEU, for an 8.8% annual increase;
• April, at 1.84 million TEU, for a 3.1% annual increase;
• May, at 1.94 million TEU, for a 0.5% annual increase;
• June, at 1.94 million TEU, for a 5.7% annual increase; and
• July, at 1.99 million TEU, for a 3.8% annual increase

For calendar year 2023, total U.S.-bound retail container imports, at 22.3 million TEU, were down 12.8% compared to 2022.  The report observed that this was in line with expectations, adding that the shift to growth in its forecast is intact.

Should these numbers come to fruition, total volume for the first half of 2024 would come in at 11.5 million TEU, a 7.8% annual gain compared to the same period in 2023.

Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett wrote in the report that carriers are avoiding the Red Sea and the initial surge in shipping prices and delays is subsiding, adding that some cargo that previously traveled from Asia via the Red Sea and Suez Canal across the Atlantic to the U.S. East Coast is now going around the Cape of Good Hope instead. And he also noted that there has been an uptick in cargo shipped across the Pacific to the West Coast, with some ships are traveling across the Pacific and through the Panama Canal to reach the East Coast.

“Despite the shipping disruptions cause by Houthi rebels in the Red Sea, the global trade of consumer goods, industrial materials and bulk commodities continues to flow relatively smoothly,” Hackett wrote. “Fear of an inflationary impact due to the raised cost of transportation should be alleviated by now. Retailers and their carrier partners are adjusting to the re-routings and new schedules, which add new costs but those can be partially offset by not having to sail up the Red Sea and not having to pay Suez Canal transit costs. This will continue until there is a resolution and freedom of navigation through the Red Sea and Suez Canal.”