Freight shipments and expenditures are down in December, reports Cass Freight Index

December freight shipments and expenditures readings again saw annual and sequential declines, according to the new edition of the Cass Freight Index, which was recently issued by Cass Information Systems. 

Many freight transportation and logistics executives and analysts consider the Cass Freight Index to be the most accurate barometer of freight volumes and market conditions, with many analysts noting that the Cass Freight Index sometimes leads the American Trucking Associations (ATA) tonnage index at turning points, which lends to the value of the Cass Freight Index.

What’s more, the Cass Transportation Indexes accurately measure changes in North American freight activity and costs based on $44 billion in paid freight expenses for the Cass customer base of hundreds of large shippers.  

December’s shipment reading, at 1.077, was down 7.2% annually, an improvement over November and October’s 8.9% and 9.5% annual decreases, again trailing August 2022’s 1.278 reading, which marked the highest level for shipments since May 2018. Shipments were down 1.6% compared to November and up 2.1% on a month-to-month seasonally adjusted (SA) basis, with the report noting that volumes fell less than normal in the holiday-shortened month.

“U.S. freight volumes, as measured by the Cass Freight Index, have fallen for most of the past two years, similar to prior downcycles in both length and magnitude, except for the pandemic downturn,” wrote Tim Denoyer, the report’s author and ACT Research vice president and senior analyst. “After rising 0.6% in 2022, the index declined 5.5% in 2023. With historical seasonality, this index would be down 1%-2% month-over-month in January, leaving it down about 8% year-over-year.”  

December expenditures, at 3.230, were off 23.7% annually, less than the November and October annual declines, at 25.6% and 23.3%, respectively, and fell 3.0% from November to December. On a two-year stacked-change basis, December expenditures were down 23.7% and were down 0.1% on a month-to-month seasonally adjusted basis.

“U.S. freight spending, as measured by the expenditures component of the Cass Freight Index, fell 19% in 2023, after a record 38% surge in 2021 and another 23% increase in 2022,” wrote Denoyer. “It’s set to decline about another 14% in 1H’24, assuming normal seasonal patterns from here.”