October freight shipments and expenditures readings see another month of declines, reports Cass Freight Index

October freight shipments and expenditures readings saw annual and sequential declines, according to the new edition of the Cass Freight Index, which was recently issued by Cass Information Systems. 

Many freight transportation and logistics executives and analysts consider the Cass Freight Index to be the most accurate barometer of freight volumes and market conditions, with many analysts noting that the Cass Freight Index sometimes leads the American Trucking Associations (ATA) tonnage index at turning points, which lends to the value of the Cass Freight Index.

What’s more, the Cass Transportation Indexes accurately measure changes in North American freight activity and costs based on $44 billion in paid freight expenses for the Cass customer base of hundreds of large shippers.  

October’s shipment reading, at 1.108, was down 9.5% annually, steeper than September’s 6.3% annual decrease, while trailing August 2022’s 1.278 reading, which marked the highest level for shipments since May 2018.  Shipments were off 4.7%, from September to October, and on a two-year stacked change basis, October shipments were down 14.8% and down 2.4% on a month-to-month seasonally adjusted (SA) basis.  

This marked the 15^th time in the last 22 months shipments have seen annual declines, which the report said is similar to prior downcycles in both length and magnitude, with the exception of the pandemic’s downturn. And October’s 4.7% decrease more than reversed the previous two months of sequential gains to reach a new cycle low, according to Tim Denoyer, the report’s author and ACT Research vice president and senior analyst. That came with the caveat that October’s data includes automotive, with the UAW strike potentially having an impact on October’s reading, which Denoyer said could portend a rebound in the coming months.  

The 2023 peak season is off to a muted start, but we think overall freight volumes are better than those in the for-hire sector measured by Cass data, as private fleet insourcing persists,” wrote Denoyer.  “With normal seasonality, this index would be down slightly [sequentially] in November and about 9% [annually].” 

October expenditures, at 3.375, fell 23.3% annually, below September’s 25.4% annual decrease, while falling 2.2%, from September to October. On a two-year stacked-change basis, October expenditures were down 9.6% and were down 1.6% on a month-to-month seasonally adjusted basis.

“The expenditures component of the Cass Freight Index rose 23% in 2022, after a record 38% increase in 2021, but is set to decline about 18% in 2023 and another 14% in 1H’24, assuming normal seasonal patterns from here,” wrote Denoyer. “Both freight volume and rates remain under pressure at this point in the cycle.”