U.S.-bound imports see November gains, reports S&P Global Market Intelligence

United States-bound containerized freight imports were up in November, for the third straight month, following a 13-month stretch of annual declines, according to data recently issued by S&P Global Market Intelligence.

November imports, at 2.41 million TEU (Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units), increased 9% annually, following a 5% annual gain in October. On a year-to-date basis through November, imports are down 9.9% annually, to 29.3 million TEU.  

S&P Global Market Intelligence said November’s tally is an indication of a return to what it called a “normal pattern of seasonality” continuing, with November trailing October, which was the crest of Peak Season, coupled with the 9% annual decline steeper than the 4% annual average seen from 2016-2019.

Imports of consumer discretionary products rose 11% annually, paced a 29% gain in household appliances and a 29% gain in leisure goods, with leisure goods including toys, which the firm said suggests a late season “burst of imports.”

For other product groups, consumer electronics were up only 3% annually, with IT sector shipments increasing 2%. On the industrial side, chemicals fell for the 21^st consecutive month, falling 3% annually, with paper and forest products up 8%, for its first monthly gain going back to June 2021. Consumer staples saw a 3% annual gain, with beverages and food shipments flat annually and healthcare products were up 7% annually.

Chris Rogers, Head of Supply Chain Research for S&P Global Market Intelligence, said in an interview that while the 9% annual gain is a good rebound over November 2022, at the same time, it reflects just how dire conditions were a year ago at that time.

“Last year was particularly horrible for [imports of] household appliances and leisure products (fitness equipment and toys), which are the two biggest-growing areas,” explained Rogers.  “With leisure products up 29% in November, that is only 5% where they were in November 2019. That is similar for apparel, including clothing and footwear, which were unchanged year-over-year, and down 6% compared to 2019. While there is a nice annual recovery, it is not a total cause for celebration either, which is important to note.”

What’s more, Rogers said when looking at the 8.7% sequential decline, from October’s 2.64 million TEU to November’s 2.41 million TEU, he noted that November is typically a slower shipping month than October.

Addressing industrial product import levels, Rogers said that solid growth remains for electrical equipment and electrical components, with industrial machinery numbers being weaker.

“The business side of the economy is not doing too badly,” he said. “But there are still concerns as the manufacturing PMI is still depressed.”

As for what to expect going forward, Rogers cautioned that while November marked a strong annual rebound, that does not necessarily serve as an indication that trade activity is fully back.

“We may well find that once we get into the first quarter of next year that actual growth looks pretty anemic compared to the long-term trend.

Should December imports match November’s output and see another 9% annual increase, the total tally for 2023 would come in around 28.8 million TEU, according to Rogers, which is in line with 2019, the last full pre-pandemic year, which was at 28.3 million TEU.

While that does not represent material improvement over that timeframe, Rogers said that there are more vessels in operation now than there were in 2019, adding that the early expectation for 2024 is modest growth in the form of a few percentage points.

“The industry’s issues about overcapacity do need to be addressed either by slow steaming, or shipping, which the new IMO and EU ETS regulations may bring or by more scrapping of the older vessels. All of the container lines are going to have to accept kind of lower capacity utilization.”