Exports remain strong for California

In another sign that the United States economy is not heading into a second dip, California exporters recorded yet another month of double-digit growth in July, the 21st consecutive month in which the state’s export trade increased on a year-over-year basis, according to an analysis by Beacon Economics of foreign trade data released by the U.S. Commerce Department.

Goods exported by California businesses in July had a value of $13.15 billion, a nominal gain of 10.9 percent over the $11.86 billion reported in the same month last year. The state’s manufactured exports edged up by 6.1 percent, while non-manufactured exports (chiefly raw materials and agricultural products) rose 24.7 percent. Re-exports, meanwhile, saw a 19.0 percent rise.

“Adjusting the numbers for inflation shows that we have resumed pre-recession levels of exporting,” observed Jock O’Connell, Beacon Economics’ International Trade Adviser.

Beacon Economics expects continued gains in California’s export trade through the remainder of the year, as the U.S. and world economies overcome the negative shocks that hit earlier in the year. “Growth will accelerate as the year moves on and this will definitely boost those export figures,” said Christopher Thornberg, Beacon Economics’ founding partner.

He noted however that there are fundamental growth limitations based on debt issues in Europe and mild inflationary pressures in the developing world.
“There will be growth. It just won’t be as robust as we would prefer it to be,” O’Connell added.

Economists are revising earlier forecasts in light of recent fluctuations in supply chain metrics and production cycles.

In an IHS webcast staged last week, shippers were also told that the global economy was gripped by a “lost decade,” but that a double dip recession is unlikely.

“The global economic recovery has stalled, said IHS chief economist Nariman Behravesh. “We have downgraded our forecast for both the United States and Europe on recent data that suggests a much more fragile recovery.”